[quote=Allan from Fallbrook]
OCR: I read that Op/Ed piece about the Romney landslide in the UT. Wow. I’m surprised that Obama is struggling with a candidate as weak as Mittens, but I doubt very much it’s gonna be a landslide. It should prove to be a very tight race, right to the finish. I think Obama is pursuing a very canny strategy in trying to deliver a knockout blow early, but I’d also be very nervous (if I were him) at this point. He’s expended gobs of cash and still hasn’t achieved any meaningful separation in the polls.
Given that polls tend to oversample Dems, he hasn’t been looking at a lot of good news lately, especially when you look at Romney’s developing edge in the fundraising race.
Gonna be interesting.[/quote]
It will be interesting. But I think it’s really more interesting that Obama is struggling so little, given the state of the economy. Romney is just not a very popular guy.
I do think the popular vote will be close, maybe very close. But the EC isn’t looking so close now. Based on where the candidates are spending their money, it’s now down to just 8 states. Virginia, Ohio, NC, NH, Nevada, Iowa, Florida and Colorado. Current polls show Obama leading in each of those states except for North Carolina. And leading pretty decisively in each of those states except for Virginia and Florida. If any promising numbers come out of Arizona for the Obama campaign, they may add that to the list, but the latest published numbers haven’t done it, nor has any internal polling lead either candidate to spend any money in AZ.
The Romney campaign, at least for the moment, has abandoned PA, as well as every other supposed swing state not listed above.
Pollsters will pretty much all switch over to polling likely voters rather than registered voters over the next 30 days, we’ll find out if that changes anything. Rasmussen is the only pollster than has consistently been polling likely voters.
A lot of things could change in the next 90 days. At this point, that change will have to be pretty dramatic. The only chance of a Romney landslide is a catastrophic event. Based on current polling, an Obama landslide is much more likely.
