Actually, I agree with the first half of ROs origiginal premise – we are getting closer.
It’s a sure bet that we have a long ways to go yet, at least in this region.
First off, we have a huge supply of available properties sitting around collecting dust, and at the same time the volume of sales has slowed to the slowest pace I can remember in 22 years of appraising. Based on what the MLS is reporting, October 2007 had 31% fewer sales than October 2006. Year-to-date sales volumes for 2007 show it to be the slowest year since 1996, and if this trend continues for the last 3 weeks of the year we’re only going to miss 1996s number by about 700 sales.
Prices cannot stabilize under these conditions regardless of what financing is available or how many ARMs are frozen. In order for pricing to stabilize, let alone increase, the supply/demand ratios have to achieve some sort of balance. Right now there is absolutely no balance.
