A slight contrarian stance, I am operating under the assumption that the bottom in RSF (and perhaps some of the surrounding communities) will bottom out by the end of Q1 2009.
This is impossible. Here's why:
Any seasoned real estate professional will tell you that most real estate transactions are "upgrades". That is, in order for a John Doe to buy a $1mil house he most likely would need to sell his $700k house. The buyer who will buy John Doe's house would need to sell his $450k house. This "chain of buyers" extends from the condo buyers to the buyers of the most expensive houses.
Of course, there are buyers who have the money to buy an expensive house without needing to sell first. But, these buyers are in the minority. Most transactions are either "entry-level" or "near entry-level" or upgrades. SD Reator & sdrealtor, am I right ?
With that said, in a downturn, the less expensive areas get affected first. Then, the "contagion" works its way upward. It is impossible for RSF to "bottom" out before the less expensive areas.
By the way, this is why prices in RSF are still holding firm, because the "contagion" hasn't really arrived yet. But, it surely will. As Bugs would tell you: no area is immune.
