One additional piece of data to complete the picture which is active inventory by week compared to last year. I have 2 years back here also so including that as well
Jan 10th 63 (21) (52)
Jan 17th 58 (29) (51)
Jan 24th 55 (21) (50)
Jan 31st 56 (24) (48)
This time last year inventory was extraordinarily low but it was trending higher. We dont have nearly as low levels so I dont expect a price explosion but as seen above demand is starting to exceed supply and inventory is trending slightly down. The situation looks very much like it did two years ago. I dont have pre-pandemic numbers but I know they are about 50% higher than where we are now.
Net – net is inventory is still very constrained and while we are in a very balanced market the pricing pressure should be ever so sliughtly to the upside. I think things will get tougher come Summer and that Fall will be the buying window for those so inclined to catch most of whatever decline we will see in this compressed cycle
