75% 2 years from now (70% with inflation). I think there is some permanent change to the market due to new financing vehicles avaiable and the “super star city” phenomenon. Couple that together with the behavioral effects of the market dropping further, and I think that’s as low as it will go without a country-wide depression.
That would put an 1,800 3-4BR house at around 400K, which I think is the sweet spot given the demographics of the area and this country’s crazy infatuation with the “American Dream.”
