45% are cash out refi's meaning what do the borrowers have to gain by staying, they already cashed out.
I think this is going to be a huge driver once market capitulation happens. Honestly if many of the defaults are not due to resets but people just giving up before the first reset then by EOY these rates should beat the parabolic curve. You're 4.25 years may be very conservative if this happens and lending dries up even further.
