1981, 1991, 2001 were last time that GDP growth rate experienced 2 consecutive quarters of negative growth.
We are sitting at 1.1% as of 4th quarter of 2005.
A cooling housing market will change the USA growth picture, if a new war with IRAN begins…, if a much more busy hurricane season as predicted this year…, if Delphi-GM stike occurs…, we might see gas price shoots over $6 on the West and $5 on the East, GDP may go negative again by the year end or early 2007, but because a recession ‘normally’ occurs every 10 years, the next one should be 2011-2012…
If we get negative GDP growth earlier, say 2007-2008, than should be, the SD housing market should go down
and bottom out around 2010-2011.
If we experience normal recession cycle around 2011-2012, then it will be a slow bleeding for SD housing market, a dead-cat bounce around 2009 is possible before sinking though.
