“1) It could be many, many years before the interest rate is back to the 6’s and he can refinance. Meanwhile you’re paying that high interest (interest deduction helps, but not that much).”
It is a crap shoot in some cases. Rates for the most part are national and real estate is local. Every sub-market is not going to respond to interest rate hikes the same way. The effect of rate hikes can be mitigated by the timing of their occurrence in the business cycle and many other variables.
I wouldn’t buy based on low rates, you have to consider market activity,trends ect. I also wouldn’t refuse to buy because rates have not gone up yet. You have to look at the total package where you want to buy and the price at which you can get in to come up with a upside/downside comparison with which to decide to take the plunge or not.
