Hey all — few words this month, and mostly charts. I will note the
two stats I called out in the title…
1. Months of inventory is highest since 2011 (which was right at the
tail end of the bust).
December is always highest but you can see the big increase over
2. The higher inventory seems to have started impacting prices.
Single family price/square foot was down 3.3% for the month. Here’s
how that looks on the Case-Shiller proxy (3-month average of
Price weakness in December is normal, and any one month can be
noisy. So no big deal yet, but something to watch. (The actual
Case-Shiller index, when it’s released, will provide a more accurate
picture of actual price changes).
Interestingly the price change caught right up to the inventory
decline in the “new normal” price-vs-months of inventory graph:
More charts below…