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16 years ago

I’m more inclined to agree
I’m more inclined to agree with the HPI analysis because their -17% median for the last bust is more consistent with what I saw back then and their -11% median seems more consistent with what I’m seeing now. I know of a lot of examples of larger losses now, but the different market segments are not all moving in lock-step.

I’m sure one of our resident trolls will come along presently and tell us that the declines are over because they’ve already exceeded the losses from the 1990s. The problem I have with that argument is that its based on the idea that the current potential for loss is equal to that of the 1990s.

Just looking at the dollar amounts of the pricing during the 1990s ($174,500 peak vs. $154,000 bottom) should be ample illustration that each foreclosure we suffer now loses 400% more dollars than the losses we had last time. Sure, inflation has had its effect on the value of those dollars over the years, but not that much effect.

16 years ago
Reply to  Bugs

Good analysis as usual,
Good analysis as usual, Rich. It is best to compare apples to apples, rather than apples to oranges. Perhaps I am missing something, but why don’t the other leading economists display the losses in real terms?

16 years ago

Is this really a fair
Is this really a fair comparison? I mean…does anyone think we are, say, half-way through this slump? It’s unfair to compare being half-way through the slump with what the results were last time when we were all the way done with the slump. Kind of like comparing a half-time score with a game final.

16 years ago
Reply to  VanMorrisonFan

Looking at the HPI numbers,
Looking at the HPI numbers, the mid-90’s bottom is not at all apparent. However, if one adjusts the HPI numbers for CPI inflation, which is about 2.9% per year, the bottom is clearly apparent in early 1997 – about seven years from the prior peak.

With inflation, SD aggregate has already fallen 17%.

If one assumes constant inflation at the historical average, and the bottom of this cycle does not hit until 2012, and the bottom hits the same level as the 1997 bottom, nominal prices will decline 50% more.

This actually makes intuitive sense, given the declines that have already taken place, and the fact that we are only about two years into the down slope.