San Diego Housing Market News and Analysis
August 2016 Housing Data
Submitted by Rich Toscano on September 24, 2016 - 12:19pm
Prices have leveled off in the last couple of months...
...which is interesting in light of a decrease in months of inventory:
This is the opposite of the usual relationship between the two, as shown in the below graph (with months of inventory inverted), in which lower inventory tends to correspond to higher price increases and vice-versa. The recent divergence from that pattern is pretty unusual:
Prices do tend to flatten out near the end of the year regardless of supply considerations -- witness Dec 2012-Jan 2013 when prices flattened and then went negative despite a lack of supply on par with what we're seeing now. However, we are talking about August data here, so it seems a bit early for that to be the explanation.
I'd expect the two lines to converge again over time, which implies one of two outcomes (or, I suppose a combination of both):
We'll see what happens. More graphs to ponder below.
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