San Diego unemployment hit 9.3 percent in March. This is the highest level in the three-decade history of the unemployment data series.
The below chart shows unemployment trends now and during the prior two recessions. In addition to the magnitude of unemployment, the abruptness of the rise surpasses anything seen in the last two downturns.
continue reading at voiceofsandiego.org
I think CA just came in at
I think CA just came in at 11.3%. And that’s the BLS U-3 number. So the U-6 for CA is probably ~20% or more. Those loan mods better be darn good to save the RE market from going postal as the next wave of foreclosures heads towards the shore.
Thanks for keeping us updated
Thanks for keeping us updated Rich.
Peter,
The U-3 for California is above 11% now. I think we’re in top 3 states w/ the biggest job losses. I believe the top spot was Oregon, then N. Carolina & California. The job market is deteriorating faster than I expected.
We’re going through an acute
We’re going through an acute psychological recession superimposed on top of a chronic fundamental correction. Chronic correction began in 2007. Acute recession was triggered by stock market crash, which was, in turn, triggered by Lehman’s collapse.
Psychological recession ends when people realize that the world is not going to end. Rising consumer sentiment could be a good leading indicator.
Chronic recession ends when housing prices return to fundamentals.
Make your conclusions…
The updated numbers for March
The updated numbers for March according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics indicates the U6 total unemployment to be 15.6%. Continues to rise, up from 14.8 in February.
jpinpb wrote:The updated
[quote=jpinpb]The updated numbers for March according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics indicates the U6 total unemployment to be 15.6%. Continues to rise, up from 14.8 in February.
[/quote]
I still blame Rich.
Its his fault I am sure.
San Diego has an above
San Diego has an above average share of small business owners. My guess is a very high percentage are not taking a paycheck right now… which is worse than unemployed (no unemployment check).
So, the unemployment number is understated, in my opinion.
I agree with SD Transplant… things are deteriorating faster than I had expected.
I’m not sure if that’s good or bad???
urbanrealtor wrote:
I still
[quote=urbanrealtor]
I still blame Rich.
Its his fault I am sure.[/quote]
All part of the “coordinated attack on homeownership”: http://www.nctimes.com/articles/2009/03/29/business/chamberlin/zf24fccba52d788cf88257586007602ea.txt
😉
Rich
jpinpb wrote:The updated
[quote=jpinpb]The updated numbers for March according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics indicates the U6 total unemployment to be 15.6%. Continues to rise, up from 14.8 in February.[/quote]
It pays to have an education. Nationally, those with a Bachelor’s degree or higher are at only 4.3% unemployment.
No high school diploma and you’re probably on your way to the food bank.
Do you think overall, though,
Do you think overall, though, the U6 rate of unemployment will have an effect on the economy and the prices of houses, particularly now that you have to prove income to even get a loan? Do you think all those w/Bachelor’s degrees will be enough to sustain the economy, or are there more uneducated out there who spend equally as much and their lack or diminished income will have an impact on the economy as well.
Actually there has been a
Actually there has been a fairly large domestic migration into SoCal over the last year, that is keeping our (now don’t get me wrong unemployment is bad in SoCal) but the domestic migration is keeping our employment about 2% higher due to people moving here from other states and looking for work here.
This happen during the great depression and during the 1980-1983 recession as well.
Nor-LA-SD-guy wrote:
Actually
[quote=Nor-LA-SD-guy]
Actually there has been a fairly large domestic migration into SoCal over the last year, that is keeping our (now don’t get me wrong unemployment is bad in SoCal) but the domestic migration is keeping our employment about 2% higher due to people moving here from other states and looking for work here.
This happen during the great depression and during the 1980-1983 recession as well.
[/quote]
With the highest income tax, highest sales tax, highest labor cost, some would say no sane (read taxpayer) person would come near this state, only welfare queens.
rich, also from your article
rich, also from your article about the “attack on homeownership”.
“When you consider that there is little new inventory in the pipeline the situation can only go from bad to worse. By the way, this swing of the pendulum has happened before and will happen again.”
There is little new inventory in the pipeline? Really? I thought he was talking about REO’s, and last time i checked it was at all time highs.
Is calling someone a RE cheerleader instead of an economist being civil?
I think GC also sells snake
I think GC also sells snake oil on the side.
“Actually there has been a
“Actually there has been a fairly large domestic migration into SoCal over the last year, that is keeping our (now don’t get me wrong unemployment is bad in SoCal) but the domestic migration is keeping our employment about 2% higher due to people moving here from other states and looking for work here.”
The U-Haul ratio doesn’t support this – still far cheaper to move INTO San Diego than OUT – if people were moving here fast enough to affect the unemployment rate I think the U-Haul prices would reflect it
go to uhaul.com and compare truck rental from San Diego to Dallas or Denver against the same truck in the other direction – when more people are moving into San Diego than out the U-Haul prices will reflect it
Thornberg who used to be at
Thornberg who used to be at UCLA, was one of the original bears, but is now almost sanguine on employment.
Biotechnology and other tech-based industries also remained relatively strong, said regional economist Christopher Thornburg, while noting that tightened venture funding has become a problem for some firms.
Some recent economic data at the national level suggest that the situation will probably not get much worse, he said: Incomes have risen for most workers who have kept their jobs, and recent declines in retail spending figures have leveled off. Massive government spending and modest tax cuts are also beginning to have an effect, he said.
“It’s really just a matter of time,” Thornburg said. “We need not panic.”
forgot link:
http://www.nctimes.com/articles/2009/04/17/business/zabcd3a0a4ce490f48825759b0060d4f7.txt
equalizer wrote:Thornberg who
[quote=equalizer]Thornberg who used to be at UCLA, was one of the original bears, but is now almost sanguine on employment.
Biotechnology and other tech-based industries also remained relatively strong, said regional economist Christopher Thornburg, while noting that tightened venture funding has become a problem for some firms.
[/quote]
Useless Tribune had a story VC hits a bump
See how long the biotech remains strong.
Thornberg used to be harder
Thornberg used to be harder hitting. Still has some good insight. But I heard an interview with hima a couple of months back where he thought that rating agencies like Moody’s we’re not negligent for the inaccuracies of the last 4 years. Well, let’s see, they rate this stuff for a living and charge a fee for that rating and people tend to trust their ratings with real money. Oh well, I guess that doesnt mean anything. Yeah, right!
jpinpb wrote:equalizer
[quote=jpinpb][quote=equalizer]Thornberg who used to be at UCLA, was one of the original bears, but is now almost sanguine on employment.
Biotechnology and other tech-based industries also remained relatively strong, said regional economist Christopher Thornburg, while noting that tightened venture funding has become a problem for some firms.
[/quote]
Useless Tribune had a story VC hits a bump
See how long the biotech remains strong.[/quote]
Not looking good…
http://www.forbes.com/2009/04/02/biotechnology-sutent-taxes-business-healthcare-brozak.html
Early this year, we studied the cash position of small, publicly traded biotechnology companies. Our findings were consistent with those of the Biotechnology Industry Organization (BIO), which reported that more than 40% of U.S. publicly traded biotechnology companies have less than a year’s cash, while more than 30% have less than six months of cash.
when more people are moving
Only if they are of the socio-economic level to use Uhaul. If its not a broad based migration then the Uhaul stat will be very misleading.
Anecdotal case in point. My best friend just moved back from KS. He and his wife drop shipped their stuff to Chula Vista. No Uhaul type of service involved and they were moving back (apparently Uhaul et al were too expensive). I’m not saying that the Uhaul index doesn’t work, just be wary as I know of lots of cases personally where it breaks down.
we’re talking about enough
we’re talking about enough people to supposedly add 2% to our unemployment rate, not two or three people who happened to not use U-Haul in their moves
I agree that it would take a broad based migration to affect the U-Haul numbers and that was exactly my point – the idea that 2% of our unemployment rate is caused by recent migration doesn’t pass the sniff test
Quote:The U-Haul ratio
[quote]The U-Haul ratio doesn’t support this – still far cheaper to move INTO San Diego than OUT – if people were moving here fast enough to affect the unemployment rate I think the U-Haul prices would reflect it
[/quote]
Do unemployed people often move to San Diego using U-Haul trucks?
“Do unemployed people often
“Do unemployed people often move to San Diego using U-Haul trucks?”
No, I think most of them tie their belongings in a red & white checked cloth and carry the bundles with a stick over their shoulder
Biotech strong? Not in San
Biotech strong? Not in San Diego.
Lot’s of laid-off PhD chemists looking for jobs, many leaving town. Not that their job prospects are much better anywhere else.
My husband’s company sells capital equipment to biotech (mass spectrometry and such) and their sales are off 50%.
This first graph that Rich
This first graph that Rich has posted should give everyone great concern. Look at the divergence of it! This is no ordinary recession.