I’d like to know as well….Nice area. Huge HOA costs…..

i believe there’s a few foreclosures on that street as well.

Santa Luz is turning into the next "Catastrophe site" ….just a guess, but I'll bet 80% of all of those "Flipper homes" there are all leveraged to the hilt and ARM-ed and dangerous…..

I like the “ARM-ed and dangerous” phrase

It reminded me of my Army days on the firing range for some reason

Back then it was, “lock and load one 20 round magazine”

This morning’s thought was, “lock and load one Credit Suisse ARM Reset Chart”

and here it is:

http://www.bubbleinfo.com/statistics-2007/2007/3/15/arm-reset-schedule.html

that big chunk of green on the right side of the chart – those are Option ARMs which are allowed to negatively amortize – month 41 is in 2010 – explain to me how the market will bottom before 2011?

In that immediate neighborhood I counted about 20 active listings, and there are 6 sales listed since 01/2007. By my count that indicates that even if no more listings pop up it would take over a year to sell all of them at this pace.

Of the 6 sales, 2 appear to have been short sales. That’s going to put a crimp on pricing. I didn’t look through all the actives, but the 1st one on the list is an REO listing.

This is kind of an interesting neighborhood in terms of pricing because when they started out in 2003 you could buy one of these 3,800 SqFt homes for about $700k; then as the golf course and more of the common elements got completed the prices topped out in excess of $1.6mil. This area continued to increase even as some of the other areas cooled off and entered the decline. This area topped out at late as mid-2006. Now it seems to be unwinding just as quickly. The highest sale recently was $1.465 and that home reportedly had $300k in upgrades and site improvements.

Based on original purchase prices in the actives and the recent closed sales it looks like most of those sellers will do no worse than lose closing costs. That is, if they can sell at all right now.

Some of them will clear a nice profit, maybe $300 – $400k. I think that all of the listings above $1.5 (and that’s about a third of them) are wasting their time.

It’s not exactly what I’d call a battlefield yet, but right now anyone who bought in the year prior to the peak is probably in the red right now.

Good post, bugs.

One thing to keep in mind about “premium” homes is that they often have several hundred thousand dollars worth of upgrades, improvements and landscaping.

Here’s a related post from BMIT
http://bubbletracking.blogspot.com/2007/05/part-i-mega-white-elephants-of-crosby.html

Wow, nice to see what $700k is supposed to get you, not some 1800 sqft rat box in Chula Vista today.

Too bad I can’t get into a time warp back to 03 and bought into that community.

I saw that Philip Rivers was selling his Santa Luz home for over $2 mil. I wonder who bought it.