SD Bear –

I do not mean for my posts to be bullish. I am only reporting facts that I see. Please do not interpret them in any other manner.

In many areas prices are actually BELOW 2004 prices. Pretty much condos anywhere fall into that category. Even many many detached homes fall into that category. In my posts I have been consistent in trying to qualify my statements. I will try again…

Scripps Ranch – Very brisk. The active/pending ratio is low and has been that way since January. This is for detached homes.

Parts of 92129 and 92128 – Homes in nicer condition that are in the nicer areas of these areas have gone into escrow very quickly. Why has that happened? I do not know. However I have a few buyers who I have been working with in this area. One in particular who has submitted several offers (lowballs) in the past 3 months and none of them have been taken. Yesterday we submitted an offer on a home in Crestmont (92129) that was a BEATER and had been on the market for 2 days. It already had 3 offers on it.

Same is true for some spots in Carlsbad. I took a very nice couple to an REO property in La Costa (92009) a few days ago and it had only been on the market less then 2 weeks. It is in escrow already as well.

*******
I can 100% say in all my postings I am consistent and say the market is in a secular downtrend. I also always say that let’s see how the market looks later into the summer. I do not say that I am bullish on the market nor do I ever say this is a great time to buy. Please point to a post of mine where I have said that.

What I have been saying consistently all spring is that certain spots, with certain types of housing, have been quite active. I haven’t commented on the sales price, whether it is higher or lower then 2004 in these active areas.

Please point out to me where I have said that so I can post a retraction on that thread.

SDbear,
Other guy here. My view and comments are essentially identical to Adam’s. I just report facts with an occassional hypothesis of what might happen given these facts and what I see anecdotally. Pretty much everything Adam says I agree with pertaining to the market and the market forces at play. I am hardly bullish on the market in the next several years though not as bearish as many around these parts.

SDR

FYI: Sorry but you are a little late! If you check back on my posts I declared we were back at 2004 prices and in some cases late 2003 prices 6 months ago!

I also watch N County coastal. I see sale prices below their summer 2004-2005 peak, but there have been a ton of houses that have gone pending in the last 6 weeks or so. Pretty much every nice, somewhat newer house in the mid-700′ to mid-800’s has gone into escrow. The older/rougher stuff continues to sit though. I am surprised by the activity, but I can’t deny the facts. However, I still doubt there will be serious upside to the market for several years. Yet I seem to keep getting surpised by the market.

Hi Davelj –

I am a little guy and I fly under the radar of the big brokerages. I do know (or shall I say am acquainted) with alot of realtors from doing transactions with them but none that I know of have bailed. However, there has to have been a big shaekout because the raw numbers were just to large for there not to have been. I think alot of people that saw easy money have gotten burned and found out that it is not like that, (at least anymore)…

I believe Jim Klinge did report he has seen a drop off in the number of closings in the past 2 months. I would expect to see that in cases of shaky or 100% financing. So again, that (at least to me) will happen in zips that are lower income. Although I bet it is occurring to some extent in other zips as well where the buyers are financing to the hilt.

SD Bear – No harm done. I thought you were referring to me. However I didn’t really read bullishness in sdrealtors postings either. I think both he and I are seeing the same thing (brisk activity) in certain types of homes in certain areas. I cannot explain it… wierd scenes inside a gold mine…

SD Realtor

SDR and sdr, I get that maybe what you are seeing, at least for your own practices that business is out there to be had.

So, to confirm, as you still are moving property, you are
a) consistenly seeing pricing that is at or below 2004 levels.
b) consistently seeing pricing at or above 2004 levels
c)Its all over the place with no rhyme or reason?
d)MYOB – go f^&k yourself!

While its great that some realtors are still able to make a buck, it would be good for the Piggingtonian folks to know if the prices you are seeing are in line with the board’s expectation of notable softening back to 2005, 2004 or 2003 levels.

Your contrubutions as realtors to this forum are invaluable.

Thanks!

I think that both Realtors are right.

We have a lot of pent-up demand from some of the idiots who were priced out and are thinking that now is the opportunity to buy since prices have been taking a breather. Plenty of average folks still believe that they can get rich on real estate.

Most people don’t watch the market like we do and when they hear Donald Trump say that now the time to buy, they rush out and do it.

Plenty of professionals are saying “better buy now before prices go up again.” This is kind of phenomenon always occurs at the beginning of a downturn.

There are about a dozen people on this list that have shown great insight into the market (most much smarter than myself), and have been consistent. Both sd realtors are in that group, and neither has taken a bullish approach from the posts I have read. Thank you both for your contributions.

I have been accused of being in the RE business, but have no connections other than owning a couple of properties.