very good point patb, the OP is deluded. This is classical “it is different this time” thinking that always precedes all bubbles. The fact is that income growth is stagnant, most of the recent job growth is Real Estate related and that is rapidly shrinking, a big chunk of existing homeowners are overleveraged – just look at the rapidly rising property tax delinquency rate and the mounting number of foreclosures and you should get an idea, population growth is the slowest it’s ever been in San Diego and OC.. infact population growth was stronger during the DOWNCYCLE in the early 90s.

The recession is still on the horizon, it hasn’t happened because almost ALL homeowners think that the market is going to rebound by springtime so have not cut their spending by much. Late 2007 when RE prices contract sharply due to mounting foreclosures and lack of new demand it will cause a RUDE awakening! Homeowners will start their belt-tightening as the values of their homes plummet.

I have friends who work as mortgage brokers and they say the refi market in SoCal is all but DEAD as a duck! Subprime is just about over.

Also, there is a growing trend of offshoring high paying professions like Engineering and Finance. This causes downward pressure on wages which causes an exodus from high cost areas. I forecast SoCal losing the population that can actually support higher home values because of this. This is already happening in Boston where the city is actually paying new grads $10,000 to commit to stay 5 yrs in the local area, imagine that!

Hope you have money saved up in your emergency fund for the rough times ahead!

A few notes:

Take a walk downtown sometime after dark and look at all the dark condo towers. I doubt those all belong to wealthy out-of-state vacationers.

Yeah, “Its condos!” and “Its downtown!”, but they will pull the market down regardless.

Regarding your tele-commuting high tech worker, those gigs go to folks in India, not San Diego. Cost of living is a wee bit cheaper over there.

I’ll concur that anyone thats over-extended themselves to get into a primary residence should be considered a speculator.

What about the guy who has the cash and credit to buy and then has 2 or 3 rommates taht are offsetting the cost of his mortgage. He owns the place, gets the deduction, he lkives wih his friends who benefit form the back yard etc.

There is also a fairly sizable gay populationliving in the San diego area. Most of these guys don’t ahve to worry about 529 plans or diapers.

Thete are also many retired military. These guys have a government pension coming in , mahy have a managemnet position and some have a working spouse. They are not concerned about the ups and down of the market and can easily weather the volatility.

Is it forgatten that these people are out there aswell and make up a larger segment of the overall homeowners in San Diego than the mere speculators.

DesperateBuyer,

If you believe what you preach, please go out there and buy yourelf a nice house. We are not here to stop you. Believe what you want to believe.

I only trust the data and statistics. Statistics show me that housing is in a bubble. If you think otherwise, I honestly don’t see the point why you want to waste your time here.

The money I saved by renting is nicely funding my retirement and stock portfolio. No offense, I hope you get your nice $750,000(**) house soon, good luck, bro.

** The $750,000 house is really worth $400,000 at year 2000. (Inflation adjusted)

Masayako

Show me your numbers! Are you seriously telling me that there are hordes of highly paid high tech workers living here and moving here, working remote/flying/commuting elsewhere and that these workers will somehow keep the housing mania alive?

In fact, the opposite is happening. The past five years we have seen an EXODUS of highly paid high tech workers from coastal areas to cheaper, more livable cities like Boise, Denver, Austin and even Des Moines, IA. They are making the same salary, because they can work remote and service customers in the big cities the same way they did before, but they are paying 1/5 the price for housing. We have also seen layoffs at Nokia (500+), and multiple other tech companies this past year in San Diego.

juice,

Talk about High tech jobs…. Not only Nokia, silently, even Qualcomm has setup R&D site in India for many engineering jobs already. It’s happening and more will happen. You know what is happening? The price of condos and townhomes near Nokia (Scripps summit dive – Canterra) has dropped hugely (15%-20%) after the 500+ layoff. More to come, guys… After this summer, the sellers will truly regret/suffer if they don’t dump their houses in time before the big drop.

I dumped mine Jun’06 so I am talking from experience, not trying to talk the whole thing down. I don’t have to. I see it coming and I acted accordingly to lock in my benefits. Everyone should.

masayako

Desparate Buyer??? More like Desparate Seller. Get lost you Freakin Moron.

Seriously, people do not get rattled by weak ass attempts like this clown made today.

Hey desparate buyer why don’t you go out and buy a few houses here in SD with 100% neg am loans then and tell us how you’re doing a year from now.

Get A Fucking Clue.