Talk is cheap, as is propaganda from the NAR. Look at the statistics – the hard facts – and it is difficult to see how things will rebound this spring. By any meaningful measure, the trend is continuing downward. I challenge anyone on this site to make a sound argument for a Spring rebound.

My comment is not necessarily disputing or backing a spring rebound but I will say this.

1 – Overall active inventory growth is WAY slower then I personally expected it to be by this time of year.

2 – In places like Scripps Ranch for instance the active to pending ratio is better then it has been for many many months, perhaps as far back as 05.

3 – From open house activity there are buyers out there at least looking. Again much more activity then we had seen in many months.

4 – It “appears” to me that the differentiation between types of housing and neighborhoods is GROWING. That is, downtown condos are still deadwood even in the face of this robust activity. Lower end neighborhoods are also still pretty dog slow.

I believe sdrealtor also noted more robust activity in his submarket as well.

I think this all can be explained by a combination of several factors which I don’t want to go into yet. Secular market trends ALWAYS have cyclical rallies in them. I still “believe” we are in a secular decline however it would not surprise me at all to see the market rally be it for a month or a year in the absence of a major catalyst to propel prices down. Yes we see lots of NODs and even the REO numbers are moving up. However it is such a small fraction of the inventory that it ALONE will not push prices down substantially. Without something radical the decline will happen but it will be slower with rally periods mixed in.

However, I do not agree with the statements that statistics are not backing up a more robust market because for certain housing types, in certain neighborhoods, indeed the market is much better then it was last year. The numbers do bear this out.

LBC,
I’ll take that bet! I believe 2007 will be better than 2006. Now 2008…that’s gonna be ugly.

SDR

Over the next 5 years, San Diego is going to see about 12-billion dollars invested in local and regional infrastructure. This includes, new highways, transit projects, street improvements, etc. This is the first time that San Diego will ever experience such a large amount of Govt funding to the region. This huge load of money, per Transnet II and Prop 1B and Prob 2B. This will offset any job loss in the housing industry and will likely float SD’s economy for another few year. How does San Diego factor this in to the fact that we will see a significant up swing in construction related jobs over the next two years?

Bottom line is there are way too many factors involved with this market we are in right now. some house will continue to sell above their value and some will settle down below their value.

Have fun waiting on the fense, you’ll be there for a long time. Maybe so long you retire with out ever owning. Then because your rent will adjust to inflation every year, by the time you’re 80, your fixed income won’t be able to afford it and you’ll move into Govt housing, unless your kids are nice to you and let you move in there nice new home.

Yeah, just keep waiting until the generation behind you comes up and buys from underneath you. lol

Over the next 5 years, San Diego is going to see about 12-billion dollars invested in local and regional infrastructure. This includes, new highways, transit projects, street improvements, etc.

Yes, and all of those government-paid highway workers will be buying $700K houses in La Costa.

BWAAAAAAAHAAAAHAAAHAHAHA!

The pendings won’t all materialize into “solds”. These wanna-be homedebtors won’t pass through the tougher lending guidelines this time around. They better bring a big chunk of downpayment to the table.