The problem with investing in St George RE isn’t any lack of water. This is such a tiresome worry. Western states waste most of their water on low-value agricultural in a bizarre system where wasteful farms pay far less than residential or industrial users.

Any real water shortage would result in residential users who are a large majority of the population outbidding agricultural users. But we actually won’t have any water shortages, this is just Chicken Little propaganda by major water users eager for even more state subsidies.

In a free market for water, Western state residential water bills would decrease substantially. The “cost” would be, e.g., on Chinese consumers who wouldn’t get our almond exports quite so cheaply, and the ultrarich owners of farms that get water subsidies.

St George’s issue is low density small metro suburban housing in middle America deprecates over time and trends downscale, and there’s always ample developable land to build newer and nicer housing. I don’t think his Utah RE is going to be a disaster for EP, but it will probably return over a 20 year period roughly inflation minus 1%.