[quote=flu]Our financial future is already slightly better off.[/quote]

That depends on who you mean when you say “our” future.

Most of us on this site are upper-middle class and work in secure industries like tech. We have bigger cushions, enjoy the benefits of economic upswings, and are less affected by downturns. Not everyone in America has that luxury. In fact most do not. (Most Americans don’t even know what RSU and ESPP mean.)

I don’t anticipate a “great” recession in 2020 but I think the economy will slow down in the next few years. If for no other reason because a downturn is due in the cycle.

I think it will be interesting to see how the “good” economy affects voters’ choices. Although the traditional numbers like unemployment and the stock market look good I think there are structural changes in the economy that affect how these numbers translate into better well-being for mainstream Americans. Jobs are now lower quality, costs of housing and healthcare is growing faster than wages, debt is accumulating, more homes have both spouses working because they have to. The financial reports are telling America that we are better off but I suspect many outside of our comfy world of tech don’t really feel it (probably more true in Red and swing states also)

Of course Trump is indifferent to how individual Americans are actually doing. He sees the economy as a scoreboard in a game that he has to win. But I don’t think this scoreboard always translates to real economic security for the average American. And, aside from the tax cuts which were funded by debt, what has Trump actually changed in the economy?

The election will come down to whether the economy can stay “good” and how many people believe Trump deserves credit for it being good. The Dow is up 300 today, but it was down just as much a few days ago when Trump announced that he isn’t going to have one of his signature campaign promises, the China trade deal, fulfilled until after the next election.

Are Americans gullible enough to give Trump another four years to accomplish what he promised us he would easily do in his first 100 days? Are they ignorant enough to believe that he actually has a plan for the economy that is in their best interest? Do they believe he is capable of executing this plan while working with an administration that is in tatters, partisan gridlock that he constantly incites, and foreign leaders that openly ridicule him?

It’s crazy to watch, but our country may be duped again by the most obvious of charlatans.