There’s no sign of a recession. Lots of employers have vacancies they want to fill, but not so badly they will raise wages on everyone to fill it.

Cal RE has a lot of factors that could allow another bubble to form. This time I want to ride it up!

The biggest “untapped” possible factor is $15 trillion worth of foreign mature market gov bonds making 0% to 1% decides they want the higher yields US assets offer. They got burned last time they did that because they stupidly purchased “AAA” private-label MBS.

Those memories are fading, meanwhile German/Japanese investors who invested in the USA 2 to 6 years ago massively outperformed their conservative brothers who purchased low to negative yield government bonds.

And these days no need to buy private MBS. Plain old Treasury Notes and GSE bonds still pay a ton more than their local bonds.