- This topic has 24 replies, 8 voices, and was last updated 18 years ago by
powayseller.
-
AuthorPosts
-
November 12, 2006 at 9:31 PM #7901November 13, 2006 at 9:25 AM #39841
Bugs
ParticipantDid you happen to notice the difference in average sales price between these two months?
November 13, 2006 at 9:39 AM #39845powayseller
ParticipantI haven’t looked at this data yet, but I suspect that big reductions by builders brought in some new buyers last month. If so, we should see the largest sales increase in the new home sales category. The trend in sales is still down, as we read in Bob C’s report.
November 13, 2006 at 10:09 AM #39849santeeman
ParticipantBugs,
Total sales amount is down, and also is the amount of new listings, considerably. I went back and checked each year it had on record and the total sales number for October was actually lower YOY for at least 6 consecutive years. Also the number of new listings was too.
This website provides the information for up to 6 years,for anyone, not just realtors.
Click on “Sales Statics”
http://sandicor.com/statistics.htmlNovember 13, 2006 at 11:21 AM #39850Participantoops
November 13, 2006 at 11:32 AM #39857ParticipantThe reduction in the number of listings is a typical seasonal reduction. It happens almost every year. The uptick in closed sales is what’s out of the oridinary. It could be an early sign of a turn around, but it can also be indicative of a bounce. Prices don’t increase on a steady basis and they also don’t decrease on a steady basis. It moves in spurts.
When the volume of sales increases or stabilizes at a unexpectedly higher rate but the average prices decrease by $26,000 some people might interpret that as being the turning point for a new upcycle. Other people might interpret it as one of several plateaus that a downcycle will move through before its over. Having seen it do just exactly that in the past, I’m inclined to go with the latter for now. Especially as I can see no reason for it being for former.
November 13, 2006 at 11:58 AM #39860Participant“The uptick in closed sales is what’s out of the oridinary.”
I agree, I just thought it was interesting, and news, and I am curious why I haven’t read about it in the news.
I am sure the total sales will be lower next month, I don’t believe the end is here.
I have read enough to know that the amount of new listings decreasing in the fall/winter is less. But the amounts here look like they are MUCH less than they have been in the past(double), and started at a different time of the year. I was wondering if this is what the RE industry is considering/stating that there are “signs” that we have hit the bottom?
November 13, 2006 at 12:27 PM #39865ParticipantJust another perspective, from a former So Cal mortgage broker, from his post today,
“It is going to be interesting to see what happens when 18-25% of the 9 trillion dollars of outstanding mortgages adjusts in 1 year.” That’s right, the outstanding mortgages in the US is $9 trillion, and $1.5 trillion is set to adjust next year.
Anytime you doubt this housing market is going off a cliff next year, come back to that little fact. Then, remember the new lending guidelines released today (?), which will eliminate the loans that allowed 70% of purchases in San Diego, and about 20% nationwide. Even if sales doubled today, it wouldn’t matter, because prices are still falling and the big time bombs are set and ticking.
November 13, 2006 at 1:02 PM #39872ParticipantWell, if this is correct “my plan” is to put my house up for sale in April.
I plan to put it in at a fair price. I don’t wanna make a mint and I don’t wanna be stuck in a situation where when I get where I am going I find out that houses didn’t decline there, they appreciated.
November 13, 2006 at 1:32 PM #39877ParticipantThe Union-Trib has an article today quoting Dataquack as reporting the average sale price increased in October. The article cites different volumes than reported in the MLS, which I attribute to the fact that most developers don’t use the MLS to list their homes:
SAN DIEGO – San Diego County housing prices reversed course and rose slightly last month to reach a median of $485,000, locally based DataQuick Information Systems reported Monday.
The figure was $9,000 higher than in September and the first increase since March. But it was $33,000 less than the all-time high median price of $518,000 reached last November.
November 13, 2006 at 2:05 PM #39882ParticipantSo it DID get press. I would think that the RE industry, in San Diego would’ve been all over that, but then if it’s a “bounce” anyway it doesn’t mean much, right?
November 13, 2006 at 2:15 PM #39883Anonymous
GuestI live in Leucadia, near the “Nantucket” and “Costa Laguna” mini developments and the prices they are asking for those homes are unreal. The Costa Laguna “estates” are huge, over-sized, ugly houses that take up their entire lot and they are listed around 2.4 million! There are supposed to be five of them but they’ve only built three because NONE have sold.
Then we have “Nantucket” (By barrat american), and while I like the designs better than “costa”, they also have no lots. They start from 1.8 million and from 3000-5000 sqft. They’ve sold three, and I must say that I walked around their “model” home and really liked the inside.
Has anybody else visited these homes and what do you think of them?
I’ve visited the Magnolia Estates in Bressi Ranch and those things are huge! The insides are nice, but a bit over the top. How many of these have they sold?
November 13, 2006 at 2:34 PM #39886(former)FormerSanDiegan
ParticipantWhat’s with the italics ?
I guess someone left an open-italics and it carried over across posts, so I closed it.
November 13, 2006 at 2:46 PM #39889ParticipantThat was me, sorry.
November 13, 2006 at 6:05 PM #39900Mexico Resident
ParticipantThe uptick in sales in October was quite modest. I don’t think it is meaningful unless it continues and trends. The sales prices declined, so another interpretation is that the bottom is starting to fall out and some people jumped on the low prices (prematurely). But only time will tell.
-
AuthorPosts
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.