It’s interesting that starts went up at the same time as permits went down. Perhaps the builders are starting to worry more so they are rushing to complete a bunch of projects in the hopper before prices come down and limit their profits. After all, I have to assume they already own the land.

This also could all just be a little bit of volatility in the mix, but 15.8% in the west is quite a number! Could just be weather, as mentioned in the article. Or perhaps the housing market, nationally, is not as weak as some propose.

Anyone know where we can get these figures, but specific to San Diego?

George Chamberlin was actually discussing this this morning. He couldn’t wipe the smile off his face. I hate that guy. He doesn’t have a clue. Housing starts doesn’t mean anything. If anything it means that plenty of projects were started during this boom and they are now coming to fruition. The entitlement process (especially in So Cal) can take up to 5 years. Developers aren’t going to walk away from projects after spending many years and million of dollars just because the market starts to change. They’ll rush to build what’s finally been approved, discount if necessary, and get out.

It’s all been in the pipeline. What would you expect them to do? They are builders…that’s what they do. Did you expect them to open produce stands on their land?

A large chunk of that is probably Utah, where the market only warmed up about a year ago and is currently on fire. People are paying $400K for A-frame shacks with a woodburning stove and tin roof on .5 acres in the middle of nowheresville (where my relatives live), not near a ski resort, grocery store, anything nearby. IIRC the same thing happened last time around in the 90s — the money sloshed out of California, into Arizona and up to Utah and Idaho. And then the bust followed the same path.

Funny but Bill sounds oddly like me. I have been saying all along that the data is a joke. What I find interesting is how an individuals bias impacts their interpretation of information. Another poster had a term for it but it’s escaping me right now.

It reminds me of an old joke.

A guy walks into his CPA and asks him what does 1+1=? The CPA walks over to the window, lowers the shade and says “Whatever you want it to!”

Use caution in interpreting any data…that which you don’t agree with as well as that which you do agree with.

I beleive in data just not RE data self report by realtors and containing numerous flaws and complexities. I think Rich does a very nice and thorough job of analyzing flawed data. I think what I see very day in action is a far more accurate and up-to-date picture of what’s happening. For eaxample, I saw numerous 50K+ price reductions in prime neighborhoods this week. While the old prices were too high, the new prices are below comps and peak prices. Sellers are starting to get that the peak selling season is almost over along with their best chance at getting the best price they will see for a while. I have a handful of very grateful clients that sold for great prices in the current market as well as a few stubborn ones that wont listen. I also have many clients comfortably sitting on the sidelines and waiting until late Fall (perhaps later).

As I’ve said many times before, I’m here to learn what is in the heads of the lay public particularly those that are at the forefront of following the housing market like most of the participants here. I have learned alot and appreciate the participation of all of you including those that disagree with me (perhaps even more so!)