I would like to wait for prices to bottom but other factors will probably lead me into purchasing before then. We will probably be buying in the fall 2009, wherever prices are then (unless they have miraculously gone up). I’m predicting that prices will be down about 20% from now (10% a year). It is possible that there will be other factors at play that will prevent me from buying at that time or convince me to wait longer.
If I buy too early in the down cycle, however, I will do so with the full knowledge of all of the financial implications of my decision. I will have run the numbers up, down and sideways, complete with tens (or hundreds) of calculations utilizing different potential housing market scenarios.
Whenever I buy, I will certainly not justify my position with nonsense about how baby boomers are going to swoop in and save me from depreciation, or “I’m saving money on income taxes” (while bleeding property taxes), or “It is different here!”
