sdrealtor,
So to summarize, you are saying that prices are going to fall in CV for many years, but it will be an agonizingly slow process, right? This is one scenario that seems to be popular among the realtor crowd, as it is a scenario that is hard to argue, and one that will keep food on the table for the more savy realtors in the CV/DM area. It also sells well with clients giving them a comfort level that if they buy now, they’ll be just fine in the long run. If your scenario is right, though, why in the world would I buy now? Checking DataQuick’s March closings for CV SRF’s I see only 44 sales in 07′ vs. 57 in 06′. Doesn’t sound like much of a Spring rally to me considering that 06′ was horrible compared to 05′. I’m sure April/May are stronger than March though, as you indicate. The only area where I really disagree with you is I believe the Fall/Winter decline will be more significant, as the effects of mortgage morass is going to be kicking in earnest as ARM’s adjust upward.

sdrealtor, I guess you could say I’m alot like your client that looked for 8 months in CV and moved on because of the risk. We’re newly renting in CV and now waiting to buy again. We know we want to buy in CV/DM area, but hope that by waiting we’ll get more for our money in the next couple years. I don’t consider CV/DM to be insulated from the rest. In my opinion it will suffer proportionally smaller overall declines than less desireable markets, but if the whole San Diego market is going down, CV/DM is going with it for sure, as has already proven been the case so far.