Here is an article in which he is quoted in bold italics from a 2002 Article regarding the stock market when the Dow was about 48% below what it is today.
“September. 7, 2002
Jobless Dip Doesn’t Wow Analysts
Ken Moritsugu – Knight Ridder Newspapers
Orange County Register
An unexpected drop in the unemployment rate cheered Wall Street on Friday but did little to change expectations of a slow, jobless recovery from the current economic slump for the rest of the year.
The unemployment rate fell to 5.7 percent in August, down from 5.9 percent in the previous two months, the Labor Department reported Friday.
However, the economy had a net gain of only 39,000 nonfarm jobs. That’s far fewer than the 100,000 to 150,000 a month that are necessary to keep unemployment from rising over time. In short, the economy doesn’t appear to be sliding back into recession, but the recovery so far is tepid.
“The most important thing to look at is the manufacturing number,” said Peter Schiff of Euro Pacific Capital in Newport Beach . “That’s the real wealth-producing part of the economy, and we lost almost 70,000 jobs. Where did we gain? We gained in government. Government jobs don’t help the economy. They hurt the economy. That’s more people taxpayers have to support.”
Economic forecasters pay more attention to the change in the number of jobs than they do to the unemployment rate. The two figures don’t always coincide because the number of jobs is based on a survey of 300,000 employers and the unemployment rate on a survey of 60,000 households.
The good news is that the economy has added jobs for four consecutive months. The bad news is the average monthly gain has been just 40,500 jobs. By comparison, the economy added an average of 253,000 jobs a month in the first half of 2000.
Also, the number of people filing for unemployment benefits has edged up in the past month. Most forecasters expect the unemployment rate to rise to about 6 percent in coming months. They don’t see a marked improvement in the jobs outlook until next year.
“The numbers suggest the economy is experiencing a classic recovery, with slow growth in the labor market at the early stages of an upturn, as companies are reluctant to add to payrolls,” said Lynn Reaser, chief economist at Banc of America Capital Markets in St. Louis.
Stocks, which fell sharply earlier in the week, rebounded Friday. The Dow gained 143.50 points, or 1.7 percent, to finish at 8427.20. The tech-dominated Nasdaq composite index rose 44.29 points, or 3.5 percent, to 1295.29.
Schiff said Friday’s rally was a function of short-covering – not the beginning of a sustained rally.
With the economy apparently growing slowly but steadily, most analysts don’t expect the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates when it meets later this month. But they think the Fed remains ready to cut rates later this year if the economy shows signs of deteriorating.