Now that banks are reeling, they are in a tough situation. Banks need to make loans to survive, but the loans they make need to be solid; and in a recesion/depression, solid borrowers may be few and far between. This situation gives rise to zombie banks.
The basic thought that your article seems to support is that now, the higher end properties will have much more downward pressure. Since must-sell properties won’t have the high valuations they enjoyed in the mid 2000’s, and getting loans for those properties is quite difficult in terms of credit qualification and down payment, this will likely have the result of lower prices for fancy shmancy homes.
For those in San Diego where even modest homes are on the pricey side, especially in desirable neighborhoods, the lack of availability of jumbo loans will keep non-must-sell property off the market, and will almost certainly result in sweet heart deals for buyers of must-sell property. But, I think this will take place more slowly because the rich or semi-rich may have more resources and connections to bring to bear on the situation and thus head off the need to sell or turn in the keys.
For the longest time, the belief was that the housing market wouldn’t sink because despite the bad underwriting practices, the economy was strong. The fact that most of the jumbo loans followed reasonable qualification guidelines isn’t protecting the banks. Rich homeowners, like poorer ones, are either loosing jobs, or made risky refi bets, etc, with the job portion of the equation becoming more and more dominant.
And, at a time when jumbo mortgage holders need a break, the interest rates charged are 200 basis points higher than in the past. That’s 10 times the rate from the past. I cannot see how upper end homes can continue to hold mid 2000 era prices.
