Doubt demand overall from 3G will be an issue. Demand for 3g is pretty strong overseas. U.S. is actually behind when it comes to mobile technology adoption.
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You make a good point about the overseas market. But would the production and research not shift overseas also?
How much extra per month do you think that subscribers should pay for 3G.
A family of 4 now easily has a $200/mo wireless bill. Phones now come with all the features as the carriers try to push the services onto subscribers. But they have subsidize the handsets. I have doubts they can generate enough incremental revenue in the next few years.
I don’t doubt that 3G will make it…. but slow roll-out is the smart thing to do. That’s why I think that T-Mobile USA will come out ahead in this race (by being slow).
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Look… As my login implies I have more than “some background” in this area. The GSM carriers are rolling out to 3G because it is a nessecity not a luxury. TMobile, in many areas, has limited bandwidth. The rollout to 3G is need because of the spectral effiencies and the need for a decent data network which the CDMA carriers have. Most GSM carriers have slowed their roll outs due to lack of credit but this is something they will be pursuing. Due to the lack of bandwidth the GSM carrier are forced to set up more base stations to “frequency split” this is far more expenesive than going to a spectrally efficient network.
As for a drop off in subscribership… No one is seeing it just yet. I suspect some drop off… Does junior really need that cell phone??? But mom and dad will hold on to it. Plans will be changed and ARPU (Average Revenue Per User) will drop but anymore the more MOUs (Minutes of Use) a carrier see does not directly translates into dollars. In fact it is preferred that the customer just pays his contract and does not use the phone! Equipment is easier to maintanian when you don’t have those pesky customer’s using it! Summary: People want to be even more in touch when they are not needed anymore.
Plus TMob is in little bit of a do or die situation with thier churn. Only ATT and Verizon can afford any.
