Docteur, I regret you are choosing to leave this forum. I respect you greatly. You are wise, and I really like you. My previous comments were about your denial of the current real estate market, not you personally.

You made millions in real estate and I did not. You know a lot about real estate, and you had some grace of God too. Had your project taken 17 years to complete instead of 15 years, you would have sold your large entitlement piece in 2006 or 2007, and would get much less money, perhaps you would have lost everything, as you did once or twice before.

I wrote before, I wish I had known this was a bubble back in 2000-2003, and I would have invested money in real estate. I saw the tech bubble for what it was, but not the real estate bubble. I thought CA housing prices were different, and I had always stayed away from real estate investing, preferring to “dollar cost average”. The folly of these approaches was the subject of another post, where I explain how I missed out by following Wall Street advice.

If I were rich, I would live rent free in a home I built myself. Why not? Ultimately, I want to live somewhere, at retirement, where there is no rent or mortgage to pay. I am squarely middle class. For this reason, I cannot afford to lose 35% – 50% equity in my house, and I took advantage to double my net worth. Now, I am very happy with my choice. I love the financial security, living in the center of Poway, and the renter life. I hope I can stay in this same rental until I am ready to buy again (when I will buy rental property and a home, God willing).

You are right that I cannot predict the future. However, every asset bubble in history has reverted to the mean. This one surely will too.

What puzzles me is that despite all your experience in real estate, your observation of at least 2 cycles in San Diego, you think that a regular builder subdivision in Carmel Valley, which is nothing special by architectectural or real estate standards, would be exempt from this housing drop. I asked a couple realtors about your neighborhood, and they both said it was “nothing special”. Perhaps the unique areas of La Jolla, coastal areas, older neighborhoods with unique homes and large trees, Rancho Santa Fe, but the builder subdivisions are a dime a dozen.

I am also puzzled that a man with 40 years in the the real estate world, would go off-forum just because of this observation. Obviously you and your home have a deep personal attachment.

Yes, you do know a lot more about real estate investing. I do not know a thing about entitlements, buying foreclosures, rental properties, any of that.

I don’t have any regrets about my comments regarding Alan Gin. He violated his role as a leader in the real estate industry. He definitely violated the public trust. I doubt you are friends with him, but wonder why you would defend him. He and Gregory Smith are clearly violating the public trust with their inaccurate statements and forecasts.

I don’t buy that you know more than I do about real estate cycles because you have millions and I don’t. Many a rich man lost it all in real estate, as you have before. Many a poor person made millions too. Hopefully time will kind to us both, and the real estate investments you make now, if any, will be fruitful.

The people on this forum are far from lemmings. Lemmings are the people out there who own homes now they can’t afford. The people here are forward thinking, independent thinkers. I think your comments are an insult to us all. Nobody follows me. They take advantage of me, if anything. I spend hours researching and writing here, and they read it all for free! If I stop writing, they don’t get their free contrarian real estate news any more.

Those of us writing about real estate dropping, are getting attacks from readers. I cannot respond to these attacks, but allow you the space to make them. This is a highly emotional time for owners of real estate, who are seeing their net worth and financial security erode, and feel jeopardized by the falling value of their home, mistaking their home’s net worth with that of their own.

I hope time will be kind to your home, your family, your investments.