Some things ARE debatable by intelligent informed economic experts. Where will oil prices be next month? Who knows!
Yet, other things are so very certain; they are not really in question and not really debatable. The long-term direction of the US dollar is probably not debatable.
The US dollar’s value is doomed to fall dramatically over the long-term (10+ years). The reason is that the chips (economic conditions) are so stacked up against the dollar; it is very difficult to imagine this will reverse itself.
The US government is now facing a debt load for which there is only ONE inevitable course of action: inflating our way out of debt, meaning a long-term devaluation of the dollar.
This certain dramatic decline of the dollar (over the next ten years, and beyond) is fundamental cornerstone of my entire investment strategy. We own a home in China, but not the USA. We have our cash in Chinese banks. We own lots of gold here in the USA. We are planning a move to live and work in China (to be paid Yuan instead of dollars). We would have moved to China LAST MONTH but my wife was not ready to move back, even though I got a fantastic job offer to work in Beijing. Pissed me off to turn down that job offer. I could write ten pages on this subject of dollar decline, but don’t have the time.
I am confident that within ten years, the dollar will have declined by over 50% relative to a basket of representative currencies such as the Yuan and EURO. However, my instinct is that the actual dollar decline (within ten years) could be more on the order of 90%, particularly relative to the Yuan.
