Love your insightful posts and agree with them all. My fear in all of this is that as the economy weakens, which I think it is well on its way to doing short term interest rates will be lowered by a panicking Fed, and the longer term rates will be lowered by bond market players.
I believe that the Fed can keep the inflation genie in the bottle, although it has crept out in the past couple of weeks. So, to reiterate, my fear is a Fed that bails out next years resetting ARM’s with lower rates and reliquifies the Housing ATM…thoughts…