Gandalf and peterb I would agree with your points about the economic lynchpin having a drastic effect. If we see a scenario like peterb posted about then I will be wrong and we could see a plummet. If we see a modest rise in unemployment and we just kind of churn ahead with a modest rise of rates and continued intervention then I am much less confident.
E your posts are always based on stats and data which is why I like them. If indeed the medians are what you said in those areas in 99 then perhaps we can see them with high rates and no intervention. I think also since 1999 we have added a wider disparity with regards to wealth distribution. I feel as if there are a lot more people with a million bucks here in san diego in 2008 then in 1999. Surely not enough to prop up the market but a lot more then there were. Of course while all bets are off given employment, all bets are off given a bailout. Finally I think the wage growth we saw in the 90s was something we will not see for quite a long time. (Hus I believe the ratios we saw in 99 were driven by BOTH lower prices and higher wages.I don’t see wage growth here.
