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phaster.
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April 29, 2021 at 8:44 AM #23058April 29, 2021 at 9:01 AM #821230
The-Shoveler
ParticipantFirst time in 20 years I am starting to worry some about run away inflation.
I think/hope it will remain somewhat in control somewhere below 5% but I am starting to be concerned.
It it gets out of hand could ruin 401K retirement dreams fairly fast IMO.
May not be a bad Idea to have some RE as back-up/inflation hedge IMO.
April 29, 2021 at 12:05 PM #821232sdduuuude
ParticipantA single cheese enchilada, ala carte, is $8 at Fidels. That’s pretty serious.
April 29, 2021 at 12:15 PM #821233scaredyclassic
Participanti went to buy something, waited a few days, thing went up in my cart. softstar shoes. seems like the stuff I buy definitely is going up.
April 29, 2021 at 2:15 PM #821234teaboy
Participant[quote=scaredyclassic]i went to buy something, waited a few days, thing went up in my cart. softstar shoes. seems like the stuff I buy definitely is going up.[/quote]
-If it goes up in price in your cart, you think “shit, i better buy it before it goes up more”
-If it goes down in price in your cart, you think “shit, i better buy it before it goes back up again”What do we learn from this? Well, maybe we should all have a piece of AMZN in our portfolios…
tb
April 29, 2021 at 5:20 PM #821235Participantwell, yeah. prolly. but it wasn’t amazon. i am consciously trying to never buy off amazon. I hear others trying too. I wonder if there can be a meaningful backlash. Is the future of everything amazon? probably yes, ecept for a few oddball protestors. hell, I still buy a few things there. bastards.
April 29, 2021 at 9:45 PM #821237Anonymous
GuestI’ve already come to the conclusion that there are only two likely end games to the current Federal Reserve policy madness (i.e. the Everything Bubble). One is massive market collapse that if it were allowed to happen, would be far worse than 2008. Second is runaway or hyper inflation. I would say the odds favor the second case because the Fed is defiant with their plans to keep ZIRP forever along with QE infinity. Plus really they have no choice. Any interest rate hikes would pop the bubble and destroy the economy since it is totally reliant on the Fed’s help.
So that said, for either result I would want all my money in Real Estate and Precious Metals/Gold. Nothing else. No more cash than is necessary for emergency. Cash will be destroyed in either case.
April 30, 2021 at 9:23 AM #821242carlsbadworker
ParticipantInflation is like toothpaste– once it’s out, you can hardly get it back in again.
-Karl Otto Pohl, German-Swiss economist
April 30, 2021 at 10:14 AM #821243Participant[quote=deadzone]I’ve already come to the conclusion that there are only two likely end games to the current Federal Reserve policy madness (i.e. the Everything Bubble). One is massive market collapse that if it were allowed to happen, would be far worse than 2008. Second is runaway or hyper inflation. I would say the odds favor the second case because the Fed is defiant with their plans to keep ZIRP forever along with QE infinity. Plus really they have no choice. Any interest rate hikes would pop the bubble and destroy the economy since it is totally reliant on the Fed’s help.
So that said, for either result I would want all my money in Real Estate and Precious Metals/Gold. Nothing else. No more cash than is necessary for emergency. Cash will be destroyed in either case.[/quote]
It does seem that way. But…when…perhaps in my kids lifetimes. Or maybe never…it just kind of staggers along, growing and growing, and squeezing money from workers to shareholders
And why not diversified us/ world stocks.
April 30, 2021 at 1:20 PM #821248gzz
ParticipantUp 250% “since April 2020.” In other words, they picked an extreme outlier month as their base month. Not a good start to being “opinionless,” but suggestive of someone hyping inflation risk.
It is common to have outliers in inflation. This is why to measure shorter term inflation, we often use trimmed measures that remove the highest and lowest figures.
https://www.dallasfed.org/research/pce/
Have a look at this chart:
From this article:
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/The-Best-And-Worst-Commodities-In-2020.html
I can find deflation anecdotes like this as easily as inflation anecdotes.
But US elites don’t like the redistributive aspect of inflation, and control the mass media and endlessly and incessantly hype inflation risk.
This bias is so intense and omnipresent that people rarely realize it is there. Here’s a chart to wake you up:
…and you could go further back. we are farther along the great missed call. nailed-it: @agaryshilling steve major @SriKGlobal & select few others… @jmackin2 @WSJ pic.twitter.com/ekEqPzyywO
— tom keene (@tomkeene) December 20, 2020
EVERY SINGLE YEAR since 2005 the “consensus” has been rates will go up over the next 12 months.
PREDICTION: the next fifteen years, every single year the “expert consensus” will continue to be rising rates.
April 30, 2021 at 2:30 PM #821251GuestWell inflation is very real, and very noticeable in the real world. Anyone looked at housing costs and rent? How about food? My inflation barometer has always been the Carne Asada Burrito, up over $10 now at my local taco shop. According to my paycheck the government measured inflation was less than 2% last year. But government will always under-report inflation because they need to be able to justify 0% interest rates. Everyone knows if interest rates go up it is game over. They can’t raise rates.
April 30, 2021 at 2:51 PM #821252ParticipantMy inflation monitors are LCD computer monitors and cow’s milk.
A 24 inch monitor cost $3000 in 2002, and now costs $110.
Milk cost about $2.50 a gallon in the 80s, now is around $3.
Really massive deflation!
April 30, 2021 at 3:11 PM #821253an
ParticipantIf only the rest of my life’s cost of living decrease like tech hardware.
April 30, 2021 at 5:51 PM #821255Sdcateacher
ParticipantI agree. I see hyperinflation to the point it will destroy people’s savings. The best bet at this point is liquidate if you have the means and move to an area where you can buy a house cash and have very little overhead. I would also start learning how to trade E-mini future contracts and stop chasing stocks. I see the market moving into a sideways range bound low volume muted market reminiscent of 2014-1015. I have enough right now to move to an hour outside of Knoxville, or Charleston, etc have enough to pay a house cash and have a substantial amount left over to diversify. The taxes and cost of living in San Diego and SoCal will mirror what I saw happen in the suburbs of NYC where the average 2000sqft house is paying up to 3-5% a year in property taxes. It is absurd, but as the demographic of SoCal continues to change, population increasing and middle class people moving, I don’t see good things. Moving forward I liquidated most of my investments on 1/15/21 after a phenomenal 4 year return and over 800% in the past year. Why push it? After trading for 25 years, there is a time to take it off the table.
April 30, 2021 at 10:18 PM #821258Guest[quote=gzz]My inflation monitors are LCD computer monitors and cow’s milk.
A 24 inch monitor cost $3000 in 2002, and now costs $110.
Milk cost about $2.50 a gallon in the 80s, now is around $3.
Really massive deflation![/quote]
I think most folks would gladly accept paying $3000 for monitors in exchange for paying 2002 rental rates.
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