There’s a reason Rich’s trendline analyses start back in 1976 and why they’re tied to the historical trends for wages and population as well as the prices themselves. The problem with looking at the pricing and including the recent spike is that it requires assuming that spike was a typical variation rather than a one-time gross distortion.

That’s why it skews the “should-be” indicator up a lot farther than it should. If the current pricing is within 1% of what it should be, that means that after excluding the $1,000,000+ luxury condos with the waterfront and penthouse locations, the average sales price of $328,000 for all remaining condos countywide is justified. The reality is that with a 5% downpayment it still takes a $102,000 household income to support that average, and that’s about $30,000/year higher than where wages really are.