Menu

Home › Forums › Housing › Boomer Bomb

Viewing 15 posts - 1 through 15 (of 56 total)
1 2 3 4
  • Author
    Posts
  • February 17, 2008 at 8:47 AM #11841
    4plexowner
    Participant

    Bugs and I are always alluding to the potential effects of the Boomers selling their houses – here’s an article that talks about it:

    http://www.signonsandiego.com/uniontrib/20080217/news_1h17sichelm.html

    The most interesting thing to me:

    “But the opposite is true in 13 other states – Alaska, California, Connecticut, Illinois, Indiana, New Jersey, New York, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio and Rhode Island. In those states, the crossover point starts at age 55.”

    This gives us some insight into what Boomers in California are likely to do with their houses over the next 10 years – and that is sell

    ~

    To make an analogy to stock markets, the Boomers and their houses can be considered as ‘overhead supply’ that must be worked through before prices can return to previous highs, much less break through to new highs.

    For example, the Dow’s high so far is 14,000 and change – everyone who bought the Dow above its current level of 12,300 is part of the overhead supply (also referred to as ‘overhead resistance’) of stocks that MAY be sold as prices try to return to the 14,000 level – not all of the overhead supply will be for sale but some percentage of that supply is just waiting to ‘get out even’ – as prices fail to return to the old highs, more and more of the overhead supply will capitulate and sell at a loss

    Going forward in our local real estate market, we don’t know how many Boomers will a) never sell; b) ‘get out even’; or c) capitulate and sell at a loss – all we know is that some percentage of our local real estate market is owned by Baby Boomers and these owners are reaching a point in their lives where, historically, they have chosen to sell their houses and move on …

    February 17, 2008 at 8:59 AM #154462
    4plexowner
    Participant

    There’s a weakness in my logic

    Many of the local Boomers are sitting in houses with equity (potentially lots of equity) so they don’t fit into the ‘overhead resistance’ analogy

    These Boomers with equity can still be discussed in the ‘get out even’ category since these people have seen the peak prices reached in 2005 and may have to sell at prices below those peak values

    If these Boomers with equity are planning to sell and move on, they will have a ‘get out even’ price in mind – as soon as prices return to that level they will sell – if prices don’t return to that level in a timeframe that meets their retirement planning, they may ‘capitulate’ and sell at the current market price which won’t represent a loss to them

    February 17, 2008 at 8:59 AM #154839
    4plexowner
    Participant

    There’s a weakness in my logic

    Many of the local Boomers are sitting in houses with equity (potentially lots of equity) so they don’t fit into the ‘overhead resistance’ analogy

    These Boomers with equity can still be discussed in the ‘get out even’ category since these people have seen the peak prices reached in 2005 and may have to sell at prices below those peak values

    If these Boomers with equity are planning to sell and move on, they will have a ‘get out even’ price in mind – as soon as prices return to that level they will sell – if prices don’t return to that level in a timeframe that meets their retirement planning, they may ‘capitulate’ and sell at the current market price which won’t represent a loss to them

    February 17, 2008 at 8:59 AM #154737
    4plexowner
    Participant

    There’s a weakness in my logic

    Many of the local Boomers are sitting in houses with equity (potentially lots of equity) so they don’t fit into the ‘overhead resistance’ analogy

    These Boomers with equity can still be discussed in the ‘get out even’ category since these people have seen the peak prices reached in 2005 and may have to sell at prices below those peak values

    If these Boomers with equity are planning to sell and move on, they will have a ‘get out even’ price in mind – as soon as prices return to that level they will sell – if prices don’t return to that level in a timeframe that meets their retirement planning, they may ‘capitulate’ and sell at the current market price which won’t represent a loss to them

    February 17, 2008 at 8:59 AM #154749
    4plexowner
    Participant

    There’s a weakness in my logic

    Many of the local Boomers are sitting in houses with equity (potentially lots of equity) so they don’t fit into the ‘overhead resistance’ analogy

    These Boomers with equity can still be discussed in the ‘get out even’ category since these people have seen the peak prices reached in 2005 and may have to sell at prices below those peak values

    If these Boomers with equity are planning to sell and move on, they will have a ‘get out even’ price in mind – as soon as prices return to that level they will sell – if prices don’t return to that level in a timeframe that meets their retirement planning, they may ‘capitulate’ and sell at the current market price which won’t represent a loss to them

    February 17, 2008 at 8:59 AM #154760
    4plexowner
    Participant

    There’s a weakness in my logic

    Many of the local Boomers are sitting in houses with equity (potentially lots of equity) so they don’t fit into the ‘overhead resistance’ analogy

    These Boomers with equity can still be discussed in the ‘get out even’ category since these people have seen the peak prices reached in 2005 and may have to sell at prices below those peak values

    If these Boomers with equity are planning to sell and move on, they will have a ‘get out even’ price in mind – as soon as prices return to that level they will sell – if prices don’t return to that level in a timeframe that meets their retirement planning, they may ‘capitulate’ and sell at the current market price which won’t represent a loss to them

    February 17, 2008 at 10:00 AM #154482
    CMcG
    Participant

    We are over 50 and not selling. We will die in this house. Raised one kid and could have raised two in our 1,350 square feet. I am truly perplexed by the McMansion thing. My parents had four kids plus grandma in 3,200 square feet. THAT I understand.

    February 17, 2008 at 10:00 AM #154859
    CMcG
    Participant

    We are over 50 and not selling. We will die in this house. Raised one kid and could have raised two in our 1,350 square feet. I am truly perplexed by the McMansion thing. My parents had four kids plus grandma in 3,200 square feet. THAT I understand.

    February 17, 2008 at 10:00 AM #154758
    CMcG
    Participant

    We are over 50 and not selling. We will die in this house. Raised one kid and could have raised two in our 1,350 square feet. I am truly perplexed by the McMansion thing. My parents had four kids plus grandma in 3,200 square feet. THAT I understand.

    February 17, 2008 at 10:00 AM #154780
    CMcG
    Participant

    We are over 50 and not selling. We will die in this house. Raised one kid and could have raised two in our 1,350 square feet. I am truly perplexed by the McMansion thing. My parents had four kids plus grandma in 3,200 square feet. THAT I understand.

    February 17, 2008 at 10:00 AM #154769
    CMcG
    Participant

    We are over 50 and not selling. We will die in this house. Raised one kid and could have raised two in our 1,350 square feet. I am truly perplexed by the McMansion thing. My parents had four kids plus grandma in 3,200 square feet. THAT I understand.

    February 17, 2008 at 10:10 AM #154785
    Peace
    Participant

    I was listening to a hearing on C-Span a few months back about the state of the economy, one of the surprises to everyone was that in projecting the future it was assumed that there were a lot of baby boomers sitting on a lot of equity, but research proved that WRONG – much to everyone’s dismay was that baby boomers have tapped into their equity as severely as all the population. The forecast for the future state of the economy had been betting on the baby boomers having equity, and that had many of the “experts” at the hearing shaking in their boots.

    Anyway, you who are whippersnappers, don’t assume that the baby boomer homeowners are sitting on a pile of equity. I personnally know many who have had to spend the bulk of it helping their adult kids – another trickle down of this insane economy.

    February 17, 2008 at 10:10 AM #154864
    Peace
    Participant

    I was listening to a hearing on C-Span a few months back about the state of the economy, one of the surprises to everyone was that in projecting the future it was assumed that there were a lot of baby boomers sitting on a lot of equity, but research proved that WRONG – much to everyone’s dismay was that baby boomers have tapped into their equity as severely as all the population. The forecast for the future state of the economy had been betting on the baby boomers having equity, and that had many of the “experts” at the hearing shaking in their boots.

    Anyway, you who are whippersnappers, don’t assume that the baby boomer homeowners are sitting on a pile of equity. I personnally know many who have had to spend the bulk of it helping their adult kids – another trickle down of this insane economy.

    February 17, 2008 at 10:10 AM #154763
    Peace
    Participant

    I was listening to a hearing on C-Span a few months back about the state of the economy, one of the surprises to everyone was that in projecting the future it was assumed that there were a lot of baby boomers sitting on a lot of equity, but research proved that WRONG – much to everyone’s dismay was that baby boomers have tapped into their equity as severely as all the population. The forecast for the future state of the economy had been betting on the baby boomers having equity, and that had many of the “experts” at the hearing shaking in their boots.

    Anyway, you who are whippersnappers, don’t assume that the baby boomer homeowners are sitting on a pile of equity. I personnally know many who have had to spend the bulk of it helping their adult kids – another trickle down of this insane economy.

    February 17, 2008 at 10:10 AM #154774
    Peace
    Participant

    I was listening to a hearing on C-Span a few months back about the state of the economy, one of the surprises to everyone was that in projecting the future it was assumed that there were a lot of baby boomers sitting on a lot of equity, but research proved that WRONG – much to everyone’s dismay was that baby boomers have tapped into their equity as severely as all the population. The forecast for the future state of the economy had been betting on the baby boomers having equity, and that had many of the “experts” at the hearing shaking in their boots.

    Anyway, you who are whippersnappers, don’t assume that the baby boomer homeowners are sitting on a pile of equity. I personnally know many who have had to spend the bulk of it helping their adult kids – another trickle down of this insane economy.

  • Author
    Posts
Viewing 15 posts - 1 through 15 (of 56 total)
1 2 3 4
  • You must be logged in to reply to this topic.