for some reason I couldn’t load up images today.

so here’s the link to the reset chart.

now keep in mind that once a loan reset, and the homeowners decide to default, it is another 6-9 months to get the home to REO listing.

you see that first peak in late 2007? those resets will come to fruition in mid 2008! which means all the gloom and doom right now is just the run up, the effect of that late 2007 reset hasn’t even hit us yet.

and you see how the larger peak actually occur in mid to late 2008?

so REO inventory build up will be tramendous starting in mid-08 and build up well into ’09. and then in 2010 and 2011 the negative amortized loans start resetting too. that’s why the true bottom is 2010 and 2011.

for some reason I couldn’t load up images today.

so here’s the link to the reset chart.

now keep in mind that once a loan reset, and the homeowners decide to default, it is another 6-9 months to get the home to REO listing.

you see that first peak in late 2007? those resets will come to fruition in mid 2008! which means all the gloom and doom right now is just the run up, the effect of that late 2007 reset hasn’t even hit us yet.

and you see how the larger peak actually occur in mid to late 2008?

so REO inventory build up will be tramendous starting in mid-08 and build up well into ’09. and then in 2010 and 2011 the negative amortized loans start resetting too. that’s why the true bottom is 2010 and 2011.

Rico the simple answer is that real estate cycles move at a much slower pace as they go through the secular cycle. The past two depreciation cycles we have seen each appeared to run about 6 years from peak to trough. While it is arguable that this cycle will run for the same amount of time, the raw data seems to suggest that this cycle may be somewhat more devastating then the previous two due to a few factors. These factors include financing vehicles that were never present, rampant mortgage fraud, and an unprecendented price runup the likes which we have never seen. Moreover the collateralization of mortgage debt is the final factor that really entwines the housing market to the domestic and even international economy that again is unique. Finally because of all these facotrs, there is a potential for more serious affects to the economy while the housing market adjusts, thus there is incentive by Wall St and even the government to delay or smooth out the correction process. Thus it is more likely that the depreciation cycle will take at least a few more years, rather then correct immediately. (This is all my guess)

Now with that all said, many people who post here and many more who do not post but simply read, do so because they want to buy a house. Some will wait, others will not. Your decision to buy a home may be based on sheer economics and if it is then no you should not buy now. If it is based on other factors then perhaps you don’t need to wait for the bottom and simply waiting another year or two will bleed enough of the downside risk out that you will feel more secure about the economics of buying a home.

SD Realtor

Rico the simple answer is that real estate cycles move at a much slower pace as they go through the secular cycle. The past two depreciation cycles we have seen each appeared to run about 6 years from peak to trough. While it is arguable that this cycle will run for the same amount of time, the raw data seems to suggest that this cycle may be somewhat more devastating then the previous two due to a few factors. These factors include financing vehicles that were never present, rampant mortgage fraud, and an unprecendented price runup the likes which we have never seen. Moreover the collateralization of mortgage debt is the final factor that really entwines the housing market to the domestic and even international economy that again is unique. Finally because of all these facotrs, there is a potential for more serious affects to the economy while the housing market adjusts, thus there is incentive by Wall St and even the government to delay or smooth out the correction process. Thus it is more likely that the depreciation cycle will take at least a few more years, rather then correct immediately. (This is all my guess)

Now with that all said, many people who post here and many more who do not post but simply read, do so because they want to buy a house. Some will wait, others will not. Your decision to buy a home may be based on sheer economics and if it is then no you should not buy now. If it is based on other factors then perhaps you don’t need to wait for the bottom and simply waiting another year or two will bleed enough of the downside risk out that you will feel more secure about the economics of buying a home.

SD Realtor

Rico the simple answer is that real estate cycles move at a much slower pace as they go through the secular cycle. The past two depreciation cycles we have seen each appeared to run about 6 years from peak to trough. While it is arguable that this cycle will run for the same amount of time, the raw data seems to suggest that this cycle may be somewhat more devastating then the previous two due to a few factors. These factors include financing vehicles that were never present, rampant mortgage fraud, and an unprecendented price runup the likes which we have never seen. Moreover the collateralization of mortgage debt is the final factor that really entwines the housing market to the domestic and even international economy that again is unique. Finally because of all these facotrs, there is a potential for more serious affects to the economy while the housing market adjusts, thus there is incentive by Wall St and even the government to delay or smooth out the correction process. Thus it is more likely that the depreciation cycle will take at least a few more years, rather then correct immediately. (This is all my guess)

Now with that all said, many people who post here and many more who do not post but simply read, do so because they want to buy a house. Some will wait, others will not. Your decision to buy a home may be based on sheer economics and if it is then no you should not buy now. If it is based on other factors then perhaps you don’t need to wait for the bottom and simply waiting another year or two will bleed enough of the downside risk out that you will feel more secure about the economics of buying a home.

SD Realtor