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  • November 4, 2007 at 6:32 PM #10811
    citydweller
    Participant

    A young, recently married couple that I know, just told me that they are looking to buy a house in El Cajon. I vehemently advised them against it and told them to check out this website. I tried to explain to them about the huge inventory, rising foreclosures, etc.

    Unfortunately, realtors are claiming that “This is a great time to buy” because prices have fallen, interest rates are low, foreclosures are slowing, inventory is falling and the market is starting to turn around.

    At this point it is my word against the “professional” realtors. I told them that they have nothing to lose by waiting at least another year and to watch the market. I believe that once the market finally hits bottom, it will stay there for a year or two.

    So my question is, what are things to look for that would indicate a market bottom?

    November 4, 2007 at 6:39 PM #95446
    blackbox
    Participant

    Tell Them to read this on the union tribune

    http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/business/calbreath/20071104-9999-1b4dean.html

    November 4, 2007 at 6:39 PM #95504
    blackbox
    Participant

    Tell Them to read this on the union tribune

    http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/business/calbreath/20071104-9999-1b4dean.html

    November 4, 2007 at 6:39 PM #95511
    blackbox
    Participant

    Tell Them to read this on the union tribune

    http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/business/calbreath/20071104-9999-1b4dean.html

    November 4, 2007 at 6:39 PM #95519
    blackbox
    Participant

    Tell Them to read this on the union tribune

    http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/business/calbreath/20071104-9999-1b4dean.html

    November 4, 2007 at 6:45 PM #95453
    The OC Scam
    Participant

    Tell them next to read : “Our house price model indicates that Californian homes are 35-40% above
    the price range implied by current and forecast economic conditions
    (compared to 13-14% over-valuation nationally). As of August the median
    house price in California was $589K, but economic conditions support
    prices between $350-380K; material price declines are likely, in our view.”

    http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2007/10/california-valuations.pdf

    November 4, 2007 at 6:45 PM #95512
    The OC Scam
    Participant

    Tell them next to read : “Our house price model indicates that Californian homes are 35-40% above
    the price range implied by current and forecast economic conditions
    (compared to 13-14% over-valuation nationally). As of August the median
    house price in California was $589K, but economic conditions support
    prices between $350-380K; material price declines are likely, in our view.”

    http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2007/10/california-valuations.pdf

    November 4, 2007 at 6:45 PM #95517
    The OC Scam
    Participant

    Tell them next to read : “Our house price model indicates that Californian homes are 35-40% above
    the price range implied by current and forecast economic conditions
    (compared to 13-14% over-valuation nationally). As of August the median
    house price in California was $589K, but economic conditions support
    prices between $350-380K; material price declines are likely, in our view.”

    http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2007/10/california-valuations.pdf

    November 4, 2007 at 6:45 PM #95527
    The OC Scam
    Participant

    Tell them next to read : “Our house price model indicates that Californian homes are 35-40% above
    the price range implied by current and forecast economic conditions
    (compared to 13-14% over-valuation nationally). As of August the median
    house price in California was $589K, but economic conditions support
    prices between $350-380K; material price declines are likely, in our view.”

    http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2007/10/california-valuations.pdf

    November 4, 2007 at 6:52 PM #95520
    kewp
    Participant

    August Case-Shiller HPI

    When the line starts going up again the bottom just passed.

    I don’t think its possible to call a bottom except via hindsight. Which is kind of ironic given that everyone claims that about bubbles as well, which obviously isn’t true.

    November 4, 2007 at 6:52 PM #95535
    kewp
    Participant

    August Case-Shiller HPI

    When the line starts going up again the bottom just passed.

    I don’t think its possible to call a bottom except via hindsight. Which is kind of ironic given that everyone claims that about bubbles as well, which obviously isn’t true.

    November 4, 2007 at 6:52 PM #95525
    kewp
    Participant

    August Case-Shiller HPI

    When the line starts going up again the bottom just passed.

    I don’t think its possible to call a bottom except via hindsight. Which is kind of ironic given that everyone claims that about bubbles as well, which obviously isn’t true.

    November 4, 2007 at 6:52 PM #95461
    kewp
    Participant

    August Case-Shiller HPI

    When the line starts going up again the bottom just passed.

    I don’t think its possible to call a bottom except via hindsight. Which is kind of ironic given that everyone claims that about bubbles as well, which obviously isn’t true.

    November 4, 2007 at 7:02 PM #95528
    bsrsharma
    Participant

    Since they are probably unsophisticated folks, you can just suggest a simplistic formula for upper and lower bounds for price. For El Cajon, a price of $100/Sqft or less is a DEAL and $150/Sqft or more is NO DEAL. Any thing in between, let them use their discretion. While obviously trivial in complexity to track market bottom, this should at least save them from getting utterly destroyed.

    November 4, 2007 at 7:02 PM #95534
    bsrsharma
    Participant

    Since they are probably unsophisticated folks, you can just suggest a simplistic formula for upper and lower bounds for price. For El Cajon, a price of $100/Sqft or less is a DEAL and $150/Sqft or more is NO DEAL. Any thing in between, let them use their discretion. While obviously trivial in complexity to track market bottom, this should at least save them from getting utterly destroyed.

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