New Foreclosure Activity On the Decline

Submitted by Rich Toscano on February 19, 2010 - 12:19pm

I haven't focused on new foreclosure activity for a while because the topic has become somewhat irrelevant, analytically speaking.  The question is not whether a large "shadow inventory" of foreclosed homes exists -- it does -- but whether and over what timeframe that inventory will actually become relevant by entering the market.   That being the case, the question of how fast the shadow inventory might be growing isn't terribly high on my list of compelling topics.

It is nonetheless at least mildly interesting to note that new foreclosures, as measured by mortgage default notices, have slowed substantially. 

continue reading at voiceofsandiego.org

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Submitted by desmond on February 20, 2010 - 6:21pm.

You left out that 10% of San Diego homeowners with mortgages are late on their payments at least 60 days.

Submitted by Rich Toscano on February 20, 2010 - 6:34pm.

What's your data source on that? And how many of those have already been served with NOD's?

rich

Submitted by desmond on February 20, 2010 - 6:44pm.

I tried to provide the link but it was spammed.
signonsandiego business section thursday 18th. It's linked on Ben's Blog, Feb 19th.

Submitted by Rich Toscano on February 20, 2010 - 6:53pm.

Great -- that's some real data to back up the anecdotes (which I did mention in the article) that many people are delinquent but not yet in default. Thanks.

For others, the link is here:

http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/2010/...

From the way the article is phrased, it sounds like these are people above and beyond those tracked by the NOD numbers.

Rich

PS - If something is tagged as potential spam, you just have to enter a "captcha" to verify you are human and it will get posted. Sorry for the hassle but this spam blocking system has been tremendously helpful in cutting down on spam posts -- unfortunately the occasional legit post gets tagged as potential spam, but if you enter the captcha it will go ahead and post it.

Submitted by Ed on February 21, 2010 - 9:52am.

Rich,

As always, thanks for your insight, this is my go to website for housing market analysis.

Do you think the decline in the number of housing starts could offset some of the impact of the "shadow" inventory once it finally starts to hit the market?

I could only find limited data on San Diego housing starts, I could only find data going back to 2006. In 2006 their was roughly 11K new builds (Single and multi family) vs. 3K in 2009. Their is statewide data from 1959 to 2008, 2008 had the least number of starts. If we assume San Diego is also at a low and IF this continues for the next few years it seem like this could help with the shadow inventory.

Here's where I found the data:
http://www.cbia.org/go/cbia/newsroom/hou...

Ed

Submitted by Ed on February 21, 2010 - 9:50am.

Maybe something else worth noting from the signonsandiego.com article:

“A point to remember is that 80 percent of foreclosures are in 20 percent of the submarkets,” Miller said — such as in parts of Oceanside, Escondido, East County and South Bay. “I’m not saying Rancho Santa Fe, La Jolla and Cardiff don’t have any foreclosures — they do — but there’s not so much that it creates a tipping point in falling values.”

It would be nice to have data on distressed property by zip code but I don't have access to any of the foreclosure databases. The heat map from realtytrac was somewhat interesting.
http://www.realtytrac.com/trendcenter/ca...

Submitted by SD Realtor on February 21, 2010 - 1:50pm.

Ed the problem with the realtytracs and foreclosure radars of the world is what they do not tell you. They do not indicate how many distressed properties get modified or worked out. These sites do nothing more then track PUBLIC recordings and charge the consumers money for them.

You can go to www.fidelityasap.com, or priorityposting.com to track what homes are going to auction. You can also google another one, I think it is reliable posting or something like that as they post additional foreclosures that sell at the El Cajon courthouse.

The nice thing about these sites is you can do a zip code search. The drag about them is that you cannot search to far into the past.

If you use these sites regularly you will notice a VERY disturbing trend that indicates the magnitude of how many properties get postponed for extremely long periods of time and then simply get cancelled. The cancellations of course are due to a loan mod or workout, or a short sale completing.

Finally you will see a very very clear trend of differential in the quantity of homes in distress in areas you would not really care about verses the areas you would want to live in. It is staggering.

Based on what I see at the trustee sales, those who think the tsunami of properties in foreclosure will flood 4S Ranch and like areas are in for a rude surprise. Perhaps things will change in the future.

Submitted by Rich Toscano on February 21, 2010 - 7:20pm.

Ed, the recent lull in homebuilding could certainly offset some of the shadow inventory. To me the issue is of timing. If the shadow inventory slowly dribbles out over many years, then it could be kind of a non-issue (and the offset coming from lower homebuilding is one of the reasons). But if it were to hit in fairly short order, I don't really think it makes a difference how fast they are building homes. I guess my point is that this is an issue of for-sale inventory, not of overall housing supply. The shadow inventory has the theoretical ability to greatly increase inventory (and must-sell inventory at that). Of course, whether anything like that will happen is a giant question mark.

Rich

Submitted by sd_matt on February 21, 2010 - 8:32pm.

If bailout 2.0 doesn't come about then what?

Or has the first bailout already paid for the second wave of loan recasts?

Submitted by sd_matt on February 22, 2010 - 12:03pm.

I take it no one knows.

Submitted by Ed on February 22, 2010 - 1:50pm.

SD Realtor - Thanks for your insight into forclosures. I was guessing data on this wasn't readily available. It would be interesting to see but would probably strongly correlate with the drop in home prices anyway.

Rich - Good point, if the shadow inventory comes in a surge then home builds are going to be insignficant. Like you said, its a big question mark. If I had to take a wild guess, it will be somewhat controlled based on what we have seen from the banks and government but who really knows what they are going to do... it seems like they are kind of winging this.

Submitted by M Matthews on March 22, 2010 - 3:49pm.

Foreclosure activity on the decline is great news, but I'm curious as to why you aren't concerned with the "shadow investory" of homes that appears to be growing.

Homes that will never foreclose

Submitted by Rich Toscano on March 22, 2010 - 4:05pm.

Are you serious? Enter "shadow inventory" in the search box to the upper right...

rich

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