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desmond
14 years ago

You left out that 10% of San
You left out that 10% of San Diego homeowners with mortgages are late on their payments at least 60 days.

desmond
14 years ago
Reply to  Rich Toscano

I tried to provide the link
I tried to provide the link but it was spammed.
signonsandiego business section thursday 18th. It’s linked on Ben’s Blog, Feb 19th.

Ed
Ed
14 years ago

Rich,
As always, thanks for

Rich,

As always, thanks for your insight, this is my go to website for housing market analysis.

Do you think the decline in the number of housing starts could offset some of the impact of the “shadow” inventory once it finally starts to hit the market?

I could only find limited data on San Diego housing starts, I could only find data going back to 2006. In 2006 their was roughly 11K new builds (Single and multi family) vs. 3K in 2009. Their is statewide data from 1959 to 2008, 2008 had the least number of starts. If we assume San Diego is also at a low and IF this continues for the next few years it seem like this could help with the shadow inventory.

Here’s where I found the data:
http://www.cbia.org/go/cbia/newsroom/housing-statistics/housing-starts/

Ed

sd_matt
14 years ago
Reply to  Rich Toscano

If bailout 2.0 doesn’t come
If bailout 2.0 doesn’t come about then what?

Or has the first bailout already paid for the second wave of loan recasts?

sd_matt
14 years ago
Reply to  sd_matt

I take it no one knows.
I take it no one knows.

Ed
Ed
14 years ago

Maybe something else worth
Maybe something else worth noting from the signonsandiego.com article:

“A point to remember is that 80 percent of foreclosures are in 20 percent of the submarkets,” Miller said — such as in parts of Oceanside, Escondido, East County and South Bay. “I’m not saying Rancho Santa Fe, La Jolla and Cardiff don’t have any foreclosures — they do — but there’s not so much that it creates a tipping point in falling values.”

It would be nice to have data on distressed property by zip code but I don’t have access to any of the foreclosure databases. The heat map from realtytrac was somewhat interesting.
http://www.realtytrac.com/trendcenter/ca/san+diego+county-trend.html

SD Realtor
14 years ago
Reply to  Ed

Ed the problem with the
Ed the problem with the realtytracs and foreclosure radars of the world is what they do not tell you. They do not indicate how many distressed properties get modified or worked out. These sites do nothing more then track PUBLIC recordings and charge the consumers money for them.

You can go to http://www.fidelityasap.com, or priorityposting.com to track what homes are going to auction. You can also google another one, I think it is reliable posting or something like that as they post additional foreclosures that sell at the El Cajon courthouse.

The nice thing about these sites is you can do a zip code search. The drag about them is that you cannot search to far into the past.

If you use these sites regularly you will notice a VERY disturbing trend that indicates the magnitude of how many properties get postponed for extremely long periods of time and then simply get cancelled. The cancellations of course are due to a loan mod or workout, or a short sale completing.

Finally you will see a very very clear trend of differential in the quantity of homes in distress in areas you would not really care about verses the areas you would want to live in. It is staggering.

Based on what I see at the trustee sales, those who think the tsunami of properties in foreclosure will flood 4S Ranch and like areas are in for a rude surprise. Perhaps things will change in the future.

Ed
Ed
14 years ago

SD Realtor – Thanks for your
SD Realtor – Thanks for your insight into forclosures. I was guessing data on this wasn’t readily available. It would be interesting to see but would probably strongly correlate with the drop in home prices anyway.

Rich – Good point, if the shadow inventory comes in a surge then home builds are going to be insignficant. Like you said, its a big question mark. If I had to take a wild guess, it will be somewhat controlled based on what we have seen from the banks and government but who really knows what they are going to do… it seems like they are kind of winging this.

Anonymous
Anonymous
13 years ago

Foreclosure activity on the
Foreclosure activity on the decline is great news, but I’m curious as to why you aren’t concerned with the “shadow investory” of homes that appears to be growing.

Homes that will never foreclose