San Diego Housing Market News and Analysis
May 2012 Resale Data Rodeo
Submitted by Rich Toscano on June 23, 2012 - 2:41pm
Apologies for the tardiness of this month's rodeo.
I'll start with the chart I've been watching most closely -- months of inventory (inverted) in blue, and annualized monthly price change in red:
Months of inventory is now at the lowest level in many years, and as foreshadowed by the above graph, prices have been on the rise.
Zooming in on that month of inventory figure a bit, here are the monthly patterns since 2009. Last month we were just above 3 months of inventory... compare that to the black line on the prior chart, which denotes the 6-months level above which prices have tended to rise.
Active inventory has continued to drop like a rock, in defiance of the seasonal tendencies of the prior couple of years:
Here's a look at prices. For the month, the median price per square foot was up 1.6% for single family homes, 1.8% for condos, and 1.8% in aggregate. Nothing too dramatic, but the price increase has been pretty steady since the start of the year.
If the Case-Shiller proxy is sending the right signal, the CS index should start to rise more sharply starting with this next week's release:
Until inventory increases, or until something else changes in the economic or interest rate climate, I would expect further upward price pressure in the months to come.
More graphs below...
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