Employment Improves in the New Year

Submitted by Rich Toscano on March 28, 2011 - 1:36pm
Because the January and February job numbers were released so close together, I decided to just cover them both in one update.  I'm going to jump right in with the seasonally adjusted data, because unadjusted January employment is always very distorted due to temporary holiday jobs disappearing.

Total seasonally adjusted San Diego employment increased slightly in the two months since December, growing by 5,700 jobs or about .5 percent during that time.



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Submitted by EconProf on March 29, 2011 - 7:00am.

This is seriously good news for San Diego's economy, and is in sharp contrast to the rest of the state, which has the nation's second-worst unemployment rate. With the just-released housing price data showing that only San Diego and D.C. had rising house prices, we are indeed fortunate.

Submitted by speaker on March 29, 2011 - 8:41am.

Rich,

Is there any way to tell if the numbers reflect full time employment or temp/contract employment? I work in the Biotech/Pharma sector and we just hired 6 new employees this quarter, but the status of all them is contract or temporary.

Submitted by speaker on March 29, 2011 - 8:43am.

I guess these new employment numbers mean I had better go out and buy my new home before prices start going up again.

...end snark...

Submitted by Rich Toscano on March 29, 2011 - 9:28am.

speaker wrote:
Rich,

Is there any way to tell if the numbers reflect full time employment or temp/contract employment? I work in the Biotech/Pharma sector and we just hired 6 new employees this quarter, but the status of all them is contract or temporary.

It includes temp and contract employment at business establishments. It doesn't include self-employment though.

Submitted by Rich Toscano on March 29, 2011 - 9:38am.

EconProf wrote:
This is seriously good news for San Diego's economy, and is in sharp contrast to the rest of the state, which has the nation's second-worst unemployment rate. With the just-released housing price data showing that only San Diego and D.C. had rising house prices, we are indeed fortunate.

Which data are you referring to EconProf? Today's Case Shiller release had San Diego as down for January (both in SA and NSA terms, though less so for the latter).

Submitted by sdrealtor on March 29, 2011 - 3:31pm.

Cut and pasted from the Case Shiller article I saw:

San Diego and Washington D.C. were the only two markets to record positive year-over-year changes. However, San Diego was up a scant 0.1%, while Washington DC posted a healthier +3.6% annual growth rate.

Submitted by Rich Toscano on March 29, 2011 - 4:43pm.

OK, I assumed we were talking month over month... thanks.

Submitted by temeculaguy on April 2, 2011 - 3:46pm.

The data suggests to me that we may be nearing the end of the "long flat part" of the graph. While I do not feel we are on the threshold of a period of prosperity, I do feel the eye of the storm has passed. There are always uncertainties, and there always will be, but I think my worries have shifted to inflation as we slowly leave this part of the cycle. I know everyone will have an argument for this rosy outlook of mine, but things never stay the same for long and this is no exception. That said, I still think there's another year of rambling along as far as employment is concerned and perhaps two before real estate changes a whole lot. Interest rates and inflation are the wild cards in the equation.

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