San Diego Housing Market News and Analysis
December 2010 Resale Data Rodeo
Submitted by Rich Toscano on January 9, 2011 - 7:26pm
Well, so much for the spring 2010 double-tax-credit-stimulated rally. The last of the effects of that entire affair have been wiped out with the latest month's drop in the median price per square foot. Prices by this measure were down in December by 3.5 percent for single family homes, 2.4 percent for condos, and 3.0 percent in aggregate. This brings the overall median price per square foot down to 1.2% lower than it was in December 2009 -- the first year-over-year decline in this price measure since October 2009.
Here's that chart again with fancypants vertical gridlines:
With this month's sharp decline in the detached median price per square foot, the proxy Case-Shiller index resumed its decline, dropping by 1.4% from November's estimate:
Closed sales rose and pendings dropped. Both changes were consistent with seasonal patterns evident in (most) recent years.
Inventory continued its recent decline, but remained over 20% above its late-2009 level.
Months of inventory, which I base on pending sales, rose -- also fairly typical for recent Decembers. Inventory was at 6.8 months' worth and 26% higher than in December 2009.
Reviewing the changes between December 2009 and December 2010 (with apologies for repeating myself on some of these)...
Prices: down 1.2%
Closed sales: down 11.8%
Pending sales: down 3.9%
Inventory: up 21.2%
Months of inventory: up 26.1%
...things look a lot less promising heading into 2011 than they did at the outset 2010. Things could change, of course, at the drop of a government-stimulated hat. But for the time being it looks like prices on the whole are more likely to fall than to rise.
In mostly-unrelated news: anyone up for a bit of boom-time nostalgia should proceed to this entry on Jim's blog, where a user with the handle "Mozart" seems -- judging from his or her use of peak-vintage permabull debate tactics -- to have just started firing off blog comments immediately upon waking up from a 5-year coma.
Keep the dream alive!
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|* Rich Toscano is a registered representative of and offers securities and investment advisory services through Girard Securities, Inc., a registered Broker/Dealer, Registered Investment Advisor, and member FINRA/SIPC. Pacific Capital Associates is not a subsidiary or affiliate of Girard Securities. The views and opinions expressed on this site are not those of Pacific Capital Associates or Girard Securities, Inc. The information on this site should not be construed as investment advice.|