Case-Shiller Home Price Index Down Slightly in October

Submitted by Rich Toscano on January 4, 2012 - 2:30pm
The October Case-Shiller data was released last week.  It showed a mild decline in home prices, with the low and middle tiers down .6 percent from the prior month, the high tier down .2 percent, and the overall index also down .6 percent.



However, the seasonally-adjusted indices, which aim to back out the effects of seasonal influences on prices, were more mixed...

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Submitted by sdduuuude on January 5, 2012 - 5:26pm.

We are well below the last peak and down from the same point two years ago.

I call that a "double dip" cuz the second dip doesn't have to be below the last one to be a second dip.

Submitted by moneymaker on January 5, 2012 - 7:32pm.

Think there may be a problem as the first trough around April '09 looks lower than now, but if you look at prices in general I'm pretty sure they are lower now. Maybe the graph needs to be splined to the present. I'm pretty sure prices didn't drop on average 5% in the last couple months.

Submitted by Rich Toscano on January 5, 2012 - 8:01pm.

threadkiller wrote:
Think there may be a problem as the first trough around April '09 looks lower than now, but if you look at prices in general I'm pretty sure they are lower now. Maybe the graph needs to be splined to the present. I'm pretty sure prices didn't drop on average 5% in the last couple months.

I'm not following... what's the problem?

Submitted by moneymaker on January 5, 2012 - 9:54pm.

I think I was fixated on the title too much and was reading the graph as reported % change from month to month. I'm sure the graph is from cost/sq.ft. numbers. Maybe my glasses are rose colored but it seems to me we are below the low in the spring of '09. Does it seem reasonable Rich?

Submitted by sdrealtor on January 5, 2012 - 10:33pm.

I think I have seen a 5+% drop in my area in the last few months. The question is whether its seasonal or not and due to lack of demand this time of year. Some pretty nice houses are sitting on the market about 50K below where they would have sold last Spring/Summer. I dont know whther its the slow time of year and these will get snapped up in a couple months or not. Any new listings will have to deal with these as comps.

Going back I expected a 5 to 10% decline last year and it never came. That is until the last 2 months when it seem like the market pretty much stopped and the decline came. Its going to be an interesting Spring.

Submitted by Rich Toscano on January 5, 2012 - 10:52pm.

moneymaker wrote:
I think I was fixated on the title too much and was reading the graph as reported % change from month to month. I'm sure the graph is from cost/sq.ft. numbers. Maybe my glasses are rose colored but it seems to me we are below the low in the spring of '09. Does it seem reasonable Rich?

Still not sure I am understanding the question, but: in nominal terms (the first graph) we are still above the 2009 lows, but in real terms (4th graph) we are at a new low.

Submitted by Jazzman on January 6, 2012 - 6:25pm.

That's interesting. For anyone curious, LA's declines were larger. Month to month, the low tier was down 0.8%, the middle tier fell 0.9%, and the high tier decreased 1.5%. This is the third successive month of declines, and a 1.5% decline for the high tier strikes me as being significant. I believe these are not seasonally adjusted. The median decline for my area (Santa Barbara) was close to 10% last year. If it drops again in January, the median will clip the psychological $600k barrier, and that will make the buying community more nervous than it already is. Hey ho, Hey ho! And off to work we go, Diddley dum, diddley dum. With the powers vested in me, I beseech Ye Oh Great One! Let prices continue to fall so me and the old lady can buy a little shack o'er yonder.

Submitted by desmond on January 7, 2012 - 10:10am.

http://www.worldinteresting.com/infrastr...

Sorry, I could not find any links to a "flat" log ride.

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