Skip to content
Subscribe
Notify of
5 Comments
Oldest
Newest
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
Anonymous
Anonymous
18 years ago

The really good thing about
The really good thing about fundamentals is that they are so fundamental. Lots of people want to wish them away but that is so not going to happen

speaker
18 years ago

I concur. Data (especially
I concur. Data (especially stats.) can be twisted and bent like baloon animals but the fundamentals are fairly rigid. What I appreciate most about Rich’s analyses is that his conclusions are based on analysis of the facts rather than looking for facts to prove or disprove a point.

If I read this graph right, then the number of jobs in 2005 is almost at 2001 levels. The increase in RE jobs has offset the decrease in jobs of other sectors. I am actually plesantly surprised that the increase in RE jobs is less than 2 points from 2001 to 2005. I would have thought it was more.

“End of line.”

Anonymous
Anonymous
18 years ago

That’s the most surprising
That’s the most surprising yet unsurprising graph I’ve seen vis-a-vis the housing bubble. Could you do the same thing for me for Marin County? I don’t know where to get that sort of data…I’m lame.

Anonymous
Anonymous
18 years ago

Rich:
A very useful

Rich:

A very useful graph.

Sure would be interesting to add median
Household incomes to each ‘Total Jobs
per House’ data point. (5 data points).

If household income in SD has followed similar
trends to what we have seen in the OC, I would
suspect household incomes have barely moved
during 5 year period.

Anonymous
Anonymous
18 years ago

Rich:
Here is what I

Rich:

Here is what I found

http://www.census.gov/prod/2005pubs/p60-229.pdf

Report page 3, PDF viewer page 10, figure 1

Real Median Household income: 1967 to 2004

Issues:

Data is for entire US, not specifically SD.

Granularity is coarse, hard to extract exact values.

Having said that, data still might be useful, in
that it is published by a reliable source.

Perhaps it would not be unreasonable to multiply
each yearly value by a factor (guestimate = 1.7)
to arrive at SD median?

Even given that the data is coarse, I believe that
it still refutes the Realtor community main premise
that the growth in jobs translates directly into
significantly higher household incomes to such
an extent that it could offset/justify current real
estate prices.