Readers may note that when discussing job data, I always refer to
the Employment Development Department’s “estimates.” The
monthly job numbers everyone discusses are very much estimates, and
are subject to frequent and sometimes large revisions. (Data
nerds might be interested in my examination of one particularly
huge downward revision back at the start of the
recession).
The unusually robust seasonally-adjusted monthly job increase
reported for July has, alas, been revised downward. The EDD
apparently overstated July employment growth by nearly 5,000
jobs. However, local employment did still increase very
slightly in July, when adjusted for seasonal factors. And
according to the latest estimates, it increased in August too.
Let’s start with a look at the seasonally adjusted series, which
gives the better idea of underlying job market strength. The
trend here is clearly one of fairly steady, if modest, growth:
