I voted for the bubble BTW. I voted for the bubble BTW.
spdrun
February 25, 2015 @
10:58 AM
Hoping for a bubble, because Hoping for a bubble, because bubbles always crash. A repeat of 2001 next year would be a lovely, amazing thing!
Coronita
February 25, 2015 @
11:05 AM
I hope I can milk this market I hope I can milk this market this summer such that I get closer to fulfilling my definition of having enough “fxxx you” money.
The-Shoveler
February 25, 2015 @
11:19 AM
Need another selection; Need another selection; (mostly flat to slightly up).
Unless something goes horribly wrong (like war).
I predict it will be mostly boring for the next five years even (but I am really lousy at the market so there you go).
Just seems TPTB are all about doing everything possible to create boring markets.
poorgradstudent
February 25, 2015 @
11:26 AM
Are those my only Are those my only choices?
Because I tend to agree with “Sell in May and Go Away”.
spdrun
February 25, 2015 @
6:39 PM
Unless something goes
Unless something goes horribly wrong (like war).
I predict it will be mostly boring
Markets have been anything but boring since the end of QE3. I doubt that a war will be the cause of a correction. Too predictable — whatever will hit markets will be predicted and expected by about 0.1% of the public.
It’s a common mistake that 9/11 caused the recession of 2001. What caused it was Fed tightening (tapering is tightening, like it or not) and people waking up one beautiful morning and asking “what the actual fuck?” Combined with large amounts of margin debt, which is again at an historical highs…
FlyerInHi
February 25, 2015 @
7:40 PM
I think that the 2001 I think that the 2001 recession would have been worse if it weren’t for the stimulus from war spending which kicked the can down to 2008.
War spending is stimulative in the short them. But sInce 2008 we have reformed the economy which will lead to longer term property. Though I can see a stock market crash that won’t affect Main Street much.
spdrun
February 25, 2015 @
8:21 PM
Most of the same structural Most of the same structural problems still exist other than perhaps new “bad” mortgages (for now).
moneymaker
February 26, 2015 @
2:47 AM
Really hard for me to say but Really hard for me to say but I agree the markets have been boring and we need more choices. Even if money is tight people seem to love to spend on techie stuff. My crystal ball says there will be more layoffs,people will cut the TV but keep the cable internet,crime will rise,people will get more alarm systems,people will stop going to the doctor as much and Disneyland will need to do more marketing. Maybe we will even have the Big One in CA this year,though earthquake insurance is still way too high.
FlyerInHi
February 27, 2015 @
12:17 AM
moneymaker wrote:Really hard [quote=moneymaker]Really hard for me to say but I agree the markets have been boring and we need more choices. Even if money is tight people seem to love to spend on techie stuff. My crystal ball says there will be more layoffs,people will cut the TV but keep the cable internet,crime will rise,people will get more alarm systems,people will stop going to the doctor as much and Disneyland will need to do more marketing. Maybe we will even have the Big One in CA this year,though earthquake insurance is still way too high.[/quote]
During the last recession, I wrongly thought that people would cut back on subscriptions such as cable and cell phones. I was dead wrong as people let their houses got to foreclosure… but they kept paying more and more for smart phones, and data plans. $200/mo per adult is very common these days.
FlyerInHi
February 27, 2015 @
12:10 AM
spdrun wrote:Most of the same [quote=spdrun]Most of the same structural problems still exist other than perhaps new “bad” mortgages (for now).[/quote]
Well, we’ve made progress on structural reforms. But even if you leave that issue aside, there’s nothing like time and growth to take care of things. GDP is now well above previous 2008 peak.
Also remember that our companies are now global companies, and worldwide recessions are very rare. Apparently India’s growth is picking up.
FlyerInHi
February 25, 2015 @
11:40 AM
up through 2015, then up through 2015, then sideways/boring until at least 2017.
February 25, 2015 @ 10:39 AM
I voted for the bubble BTW.
I voted for the bubble BTW.
February 25, 2015 @ 10:58 AM
Hoping for a bubble, because
Hoping for a bubble, because bubbles always crash. A repeat of 2001 next year would be a lovely, amazing thing!
February 25, 2015 @ 11:05 AM
I hope I can milk this market
I hope I can milk this market this summer such that I get closer to fulfilling my definition of having enough “fxxx you” money.
February 25, 2015 @ 11:19 AM
Need another selection;
Need another selection; (mostly flat to slightly up).
Unless something goes horribly wrong (like war).
I predict it will be mostly boring for the next five years even (but I am really lousy at the market so there you go).
Just seems TPTB are all about doing everything possible to create boring markets.
February 25, 2015 @ 11:26 AM
Are those my only
Are those my only choices?
Because I tend to agree with “Sell in May and Go Away”.
February 25, 2015 @ 6:39 PM
Unless something goes
Markets have been anything but boring since the end of QE3. I doubt that a war will be the cause of a correction. Too predictable — whatever will hit markets will be predicted and expected by about 0.1% of the public.
It’s a common mistake that 9/11 caused the recession of 2001. What caused it was Fed tightening (tapering is tightening, like it or not) and people waking up one beautiful morning and asking “what the actual fuck?” Combined with large amounts of margin debt, which is again at an historical highs…
February 25, 2015 @ 7:40 PM
I think that the 2001
I think that the 2001 recession would have been worse if it weren’t for the stimulus from war spending which kicked the can down to 2008.
War spending is stimulative in the short them. But sInce 2008 we have reformed the economy which will lead to longer term property. Though I can see a stock market crash that won’t affect Main Street much.
February 25, 2015 @ 8:21 PM
Most of the same structural
Most of the same structural problems still exist other than perhaps new “bad” mortgages (for now).
February 26, 2015 @ 2:47 AM
Really hard for me to say but
Really hard for me to say but I agree the markets have been boring and we need more choices. Even if money is tight people seem to love to spend on techie stuff. My crystal ball says there will be more layoffs,people will cut the TV but keep the cable internet,crime will rise,people will get more alarm systems,people will stop going to the doctor as much and Disneyland will need to do more marketing. Maybe we will even have the Big One in CA this year,though earthquake insurance is still way too high.
February 27, 2015 @ 12:17 AM
moneymaker wrote:Really hard
[quote=moneymaker]Really hard for me to say but I agree the markets have been boring and we need more choices. Even if money is tight people seem to love to spend on techie stuff. My crystal ball says there will be more layoffs,people will cut the TV but keep the cable internet,crime will rise,people will get more alarm systems,people will stop going to the doctor as much and Disneyland will need to do more marketing. Maybe we will even have the Big One in CA this year,though earthquake insurance is still way too high.[/quote]
During the last recession, I wrongly thought that people would cut back on subscriptions such as cable and cell phones. I was dead wrong as people let their houses got to foreclosure… but they kept paying more and more for smart phones, and data plans. $200/mo per adult is very common these days.
February 27, 2015 @ 12:10 AM
spdrun wrote:Most of the same
[quote=spdrun]Most of the same structural problems still exist other than perhaps new “bad” mortgages (for now).[/quote]
Well, we’ve made progress on structural reforms. But even if you leave that issue aside, there’s nothing like time and growth to take care of things. GDP is now well above previous 2008 peak.
Also remember that our companies are now global companies, and worldwide recessions are very rare. Apparently India’s growth is picking up.
February 25, 2015 @ 11:40 AM
up through 2015, then
up through 2015, then sideways/boring until at least 2017.