October 2015 Housing Data Rodeo

Submitted by Rich Toscano on November 22, 2015 - 3:16pm
Prices have flattened out over the past few months, as might be expected during this time of year.  This is most easily seen in the Case Shiller proxy, which uses a 3 month average:



The monthly figures are obviously more volatile, but you can still see that after a surge in the beginning of the year, the price per square foot has basically gone nowhere for a while:



Sales volume was on the weakish side compared to early in the year, but in line with past years:





...but inventory also declined, and is below where it was at this time last year:



Thus, months of inventory is also below last year's level, and at about the same level as 2013 (post-frenzy).



The slow season seems to be offsetting low inventory to keep prices about unchanged, but given the low level of supply compared to demand, I wouldn't expect much price relief for buyers in the near term:



Here's the monthly summary table for October:



  ...and some bonus graphs (presented without comment) below:





















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Submitted by gzz on November 22, 2015 - 4:46pm.

92107 just saw a surge of sales/pendings with no new inventory to replace them over the past week.

Here are the inventory/sales info for 92107 using sdlookup (which seems to exclude both sales and listings that are non-MLS).

Past 30 days SFH <$2 million sales 16
Inventory 22
Supply 1.4 months

Past 30 days SFH >$2 million sales 2
Inventory 7
Supply 3.5 months

Past 30 days condo sales 6
Inventory 14
Supply 2.3 months

So we are looking stronger than SD as a whole's 2.5 month inventory.

Looking only at sub $1 million SFH for the past 30 days:
Sales 13
Inventory 13
Supply: 1 month

Drilling down still further to "family sized" at least three bed and two bath) SFH under $1 million

Sales 9
Inventory 3
Supply 0.3 months

I'll bet those three remaining houses get quite a few offers!

Submitted by XBoxBoy on November 22, 2015 - 5:54pm.

Rich, as always thanks a ton for putting this together.

Submitted by Rich Toscano on November 22, 2015 - 6:58pm.

Sure thing... sorry for the delay...

Submitted by Escoguy on November 22, 2015 - 7:13pm.

I second the thank you Rich!

Looking a little deeper at the inventory: there's been some discussion in the past about how much inventory there is below the 750K price point with 3BR and 1250 sf+. To try and target the SFH shopper.

When I check the zip realty site, they show 1435 properties around the county below 750K and 1107 for less than 650K with the same criteria w/o manufactured homes. 929 homes are below 600K. And as a rule of thumb, a six figure income is needed for that level.

I am mapping only to about 20 miles from the coast but include areas east of the I-15.

1779 properties were 3BR above 750K county wide.

There were 1904 townhouses, condos, manufactured homes and multifamily at any price or size. (not SFHs)

A few zip codes I follow:

92127: 15 homes/condos with 1250 sf+, 3BR below 750K.
92078: 41 homes/condos with 1250 sf+, 3BR below 750K.
92027: 46 homes/condos with 1250 sf+, 3BR below 750K.

So just reinforcing the message, for the SFH shopper, the inventory is tight so work with someone who knows the market. I think the data with moderating prices is a long term good sign as there are more indicators that interest rates won't spike in the future as feared but will likely rise gradually until the next recession which is hopefully more than a few years off due to low energy prices.

Submitted by flu on November 24, 2015 - 2:26am.

So I guess those massive layoffs at Qualcomm didn't really make a dent in the housing supply after all.

Submitted by spdrun on November 24, 2015 - 9:51am.

Takes a while for people to sell and move to Tejas. The effect will likely be visible in April/May (end of 2015-6 school year) if it happens...

Submitted by poorgradstudent on November 30, 2015 - 1:34pm.

flu wrote:
So I guess those massive layoffs at Qualcomm didn't really make a dent in the housing supply after all.

I heard on the radio they were more spread out geographically than some feared. I do agree there may be some long term effects we haven't seen yet; most people don't sell their house a month after receiving a layoff notice. For laid off workers, their final day was November 20th. Many probably also got severance packages. Some probably have already landed new jobs.

If there is going to be an impact, I'd zoom in on Mira Mesa and 4S Ranch, which seem to be the two main areas QCOM workers live.

Submitted by bearishgurl on December 2, 2015 - 6:03pm.

poorgradstudent wrote:
flu wrote:
So I guess those massive layoffs at Qualcomm didn't really make a dent in the housing supply after all.

I heard on the radio they were more spread out geographically than some feared. I do agree there may be some long term effects we haven't seen yet; most people don't sell their house a month after receiving a layoff notice. For laid off workers, their final day was November 20th. Many probably also got severance packages. Some probably have already landed new jobs.

If there is going to be an impact, I'd zoom in on Mira Mesa and 4S Ranch, which seem to be the two main areas QCOM workers live.

I knew these workers would be spread out as many of them began working for Q-com after retirement from the military and already owned their residence in SD County at the time of their hire. Many of them were longtime residents of South and East county as well as SD Metro.

I posted on recent Q-com layoff thread(s) here that I didn't (and still don't) believe that those Q-com workers who were being "laid off" (catch phrase for a "golden parachute" offered to a good portion of them) are going to put their homes on the market. Undoubtedly, a portion of these homes are paid off or nearly so. These workers simply went home for the holidays with their great severance pkgs signed, sealed and delivered and will address finding a nice part-time "retirement gig" in 2016 ... that is IF they really want it and/or need it. If they're already Medicare-eligible, they're golden! If they are currently SS-OASDI eligible as well, then they're set for life!

Submitted by Jazzman on December 7, 2015 - 5:38pm.

Rich. get me out of here. Please delete my account. Too many assholes. I would do it myself but can't see how to.

Submitted by zk on December 9, 2015 - 12:28pm.

Jazzman wrote:
Crap, bollocks, rubbish and nonsense. What a load of old cods wallop. You really think Asians prefer CA. You are so full of shit is embarrassing. What an idiot. GO FVCK YOURSELF!!!!!

Jazzman wrote:
Rich. get me out of here. Please delete my account. Too many assholes. I would do it myself but can't see how to.

That's kinda funny. Here's how I read that.

First, he makes a very assholish post.

Then he says,

"There's too many assholes here. Delete my account."

It looks like he's just trying to help out by reducing the number of assholes here by one. "There's too many assholes here. Get rid of one. Delete my account." You're a giver, Jazzman!

Submitted by Rich Toscano on December 9, 2015 - 1:46pm.
Submitted by moneymaker on December 13, 2015 - 10:09pm.

First time seeing coprolalia in print. Jazzman may have tourette's syndrome. Reminds me of the Deuce Bigelow: Male Gigolo movie where he's driving around in a convertible with a paying customer.

Submitted by zk on December 16, 2015 - 8:12am.

moneymaker wrote:
First time seeing coprolalia in print. Jazzman may have tourette's syndrome. Reminds me of the Deuce Bigelow: Male Gigolo movie where he's driving around in a convertible with a paying customer.

Maybe. Or, maybe Jazzman's post was satire, as Rich pointed out (follow the link on Rich's post above).

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