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moneymaker
13 years ago

It’s starting to look like a
It’s starting to look like a “double dip”. Unlike most of the Piggs here I’m looking forward to rates dropping and then a rollercoaster ride up in inflation afterward.

CAwireman
13 years ago

A whole lotta grey. Not a lot
A whole lotta grey. Not a lot of Red or Black directionally speaking. As always, awesome data.

At some point, I would expect you to write a book on all of this. The data and observations from the site would handily fill out a book’s worth and then some of cool data. I’d buy a copy right off the presses and wouldn’t wait for the paperback version.

I do think there is some method to the madness however. I think the Banks and the US government (oh wait, they are one in the same now…) meet regularly to keep the lid on another 2007 style or worse melt down. So, to recap a running theme on this site, there’s a lot of pressure against things settling out in free market style.

Predicting a buyer’s credit resumption in Jan/Feb. Also predicting a more formulaic principal writedown process, backed directly by the government if things continue south. (That’s where some of the $8B will go) And, predicting more outflow of talent from SD to parts east. S’my story and I’m sticking to it!

permabear
13 years ago
Reply to  Rich Toscano

Rich, do you happen to have
Rich, do you happen to have this data split out by tier (eg, low, medium, high)?

sdduuuude
13 years ago

This looks like a regular ol’
This looks like a regular ol’ Fall downturn to me. The next question is – will the Spring bounce happen in 2011 ?

sdduuuude
13 years ago
Reply to  sdduuuude

P.S. Might be nice to see
P.S. Might be nice to see some vertical lines on these charts to indicate seasons, or at least the year end so we can see what typically happens in Fall/Spring … a much simpler request than a book πŸ™‚

an
an
13 years ago
Reply to  Rich Toscano

Rich Toscano wrote:sdduuuude
[quote=Rich Toscano][quote=sdduuuude]P.S. Might be nice to see some vertical lines on these charts to indicate seasons, or at least the year end so we can see what typically happens in Fall/Spring … a much simpler request than a book :)[/quote]

I’ve never been able to figure out how to do that in Excel (if it does it at all)… anyone?[/quote]
I’m not sure about other version of excel but in the 2010 version, you can choose a different chart layout. There is one that will draw a line straight down from your curve to the x axis.

an
an
13 years ago
Reply to  Rich Toscano

Rich Toscano wrote:
Thanks

[quote=Rich Toscano]
Thanks AN. I am using Excel 2008 for the Mac. Are you talking about the “column” graph type? That wouldn’t really work in the case of multiple line graphs, unfortunately… it would make them quite unreadable (I just tried it out!).[/quote]
Rich, no, I’m not talking about the column graph type. I just check with my Excel 2007 (PC) and the same Chart Layout exist (not sure what it is like on the Mac. If Excel 2008 for Mac have the Ribbon design as well, then after I create a 2D line chart, the ribbon changed into different chart properties. One of the property is “chart layouts”. One of the chart layout preview icon have dotted lines from your data line down to the x-axis. Select that one and it should work.

an
an
13 years ago
Reply to  Rich Toscano

Rich Toscano wrote:AN – This
[quote=Rich Toscano]AN – This weekend I installed the recently released Excel 2011 for the Mac, and I am now seeing what you are talking about (they are called “drop lines”). That’s the good news… the bad news is that they aren’t configurable, so they always drop a line from every single data point, as opposed to every tick mark on the axis. Unfortunately this defeats the purpose for these long-term graphs with many data points… just thought I’d let you know though that they are now available for Mac users. Thanks.

Rich[/quote]
Rich, I’m not sure if Excel 2011 for Mac have this but once you create your chart, click on the chart and go to the layout. In Excel 2010 for PC, it’s right next to design and format. In layout, you should see an option for “Gridlines”. Click on Primary Vertical Gridlines and select Major Gridline. That “should” give you the vertical lines you’re looking for.

sdrealtor
13 years ago
Reply to  sdduuuude

sdduuuude wrote:This looks
[quote=sdduuuude]This looks like a regular ol’ Fall downturn to me. The next question is – will the Spring bounce happen in 2011 ?[/quote]

That is what it feels like to me. BTW, check the last thread. I’m just about ready to declare we are at what I consider a bottom (i.e. a range where deals can be found within 5 to 10% of the best price possible) during this downcycle. I even have my kevlar PJ’s on.

pemeliza
13 years ago
Reply to  sdrealtor

I agree sdr, in my neck of
I agree sdr, in my neck of the woods it is possible to get close to 2001 pricing on good houses (and not just the 1M+ houses either).

permabear
13 years ago
Reply to  pemeliza

Well, I just re-ran my Poway
Well, I just re-ran my Poway search up to $1.5M and there are dozens of homes sitting for 140, 160, 180+ days. Same thing in Santaluz high-end. Check out this noteworthy example in Green Valley:

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Poway/13735-Acorn-Patch-Rd-92064/home/4261042

I’ve watched that since it was listed at $1.25M… and now it’s a $799k short sale.

I think the “hurry up” enthusiasm for the $1M+ price range is starting to wane significantly outside of coastal areas. Combined with stricter lending guidelines, and the fact that 20% down on $1.3M is $260k… I think there’s some air left in the high-end Poway/Santaluz balloon.

permabear
13 years ago
Reply to  permabear

Just popped back on market
Just popped back on market (buyer fell thru) – $1.4M in Santaluz – $290/sq ft

http://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Diego/7774-Doug-Hill-Ct-92127/home/6583575

sdcellar
13 years ago
Reply to  permabear

He probably realized the
He probably realized the price was a little stiff for a quasi-twinhome. I always thought that those lots, in particular, were kind of wack-a-doodle. Awesome view of Camino Del Sur too.

If he’d have bought it though, he would have at least had a place to put his, well, everything.

permabear
13 years ago
Reply to  sdcellar

You have to wonder how long
You have to wonder how long this guy is going to try and hold out at $1.595M

http://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Diego/14316-Salida-Del-Sol-92127/home/6637081

When the same floorplan across the street has been listed at $1.025M for 811 days

http://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Diego/14317-Salida-Del-Sol-92127/home/6637074

Seems the market is pretty clearly saying both are overpriced still…

sdduuuude
13 years ago
Reply to  sdrealtor

Could look like this for the
Could look like this for the next 5 years:

/////

afx114
13 years ago
Reply to  sdduuuude

sdduuuude wrote:Could look
[quote=sdduuuude]Could look like this for the next 5 years:

/////[/quote]

Damn, I was hoping the market would look more like this: (.)(.)

Arraya
13 years ago
Reply to  afx114

I was thinking something like
I was thinking something like this

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β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”–/β€”-/
β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”-/β€”-/
β€”β€”β€”–/´¯/’–‘/´¯`β€’_
β€”β€”β€”-/’/–/β€”-/β€”–/¨¯
β€”β€”–(‘(β€”β€”β€”- Β―~/’–‘)
β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”-‘β€”–/
β€”β€”β€”-”β€”β€”β€”β€”_-β€’Β΄
β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”–(

peterb
13 years ago
Reply to  Arraya

Rising inventory and falling
Rising inventory and falling prices. Someone better get back on the inventory squeezing machine before the winter RE market kicks in.