The new year has opened up with signs of life in the housing market and a chorus of pundits proclaiming that the worst is behind us. Could it be true? Will the residential real estate market fare better in 2007 than it did in 2006?
As I survey the scene, I am left with the distinct impression that it will not. Every indicator of housing market health seems to be in worse shape now that it was a year ago.
read more at voiceofsandiego.org
January 17, 2007 @ 12:47 PM
Good summary, Rich; makes
Good summary, Rich; makes sense.
January 18, 2007 @ 7:05 AM
MLS Inventory REDUCED,
MLS Inventory REDUCED, Rich!
You stated: “Supply and demand. It’s true that housing activity picked up in December, at least as compared to the abyssmal months that came before it. But inventory is still higher and sales lower than they were at this time last year.”
I am involved daily with MLS and multiple local websites that appeal to the Buyer’s market you and Piggingtonian’s acknowledge….We track SFR/Condo inventory approximations on the eighth day of each month…Here is a San Diego MLS factoid:
Combo inventory Aug, 2005 = 15,000
Combo inventory Oct, 2006 = 23,000 PEAK
Combo inventory Jan, 2007 = 16,000
This “INVENTORY REDUCTION” of 30% is the greatest in my 10 years as a Realtor, Loan Officer, Property Manager and Investor. The drop seems beyond Seasonal Adjustment. Where have all the Sellers GONE, and where ARE the Buyers? Vacant listings have dropped fom 32% to 27%. Could we be settling into a “new equilibrium”?
We hope that creative financing promoted at http://www.OwnerMayCarry.com will pick up faster than the properties identified at http://www.ShortSaleHomes.com !! Owners nearing default should explore a Short Sale (near fair market value) BEFORE any Notice of Default is filed by their lender!
Today’s lenders are more responsive to the coming increase of mortgage defaults with better procedures for “loss mitigation” than they were ten years ago. Surprisingly, the count of SDMLS “Short Sales” has remained “level” in the range of only 400-425 homes for the past few months.
Keep up the good work, Rich. email@example.com
January 18, 2007 @ 8:14 AM
Rich stated that inventory is higher and sales lower than a year ago.
You state that inventory is 30% off the October peak and a bit higher than August 2005. You are both right. But it’s comparing apples and (frozen) oranges.
I love to hear counterpoints and sometimes am a source of them, but please counter the point with the appropriate data. What are the numbers for Dec 2005 compared to Dec 2006 or January 2006 to January 2007 ?
As for the 30% drop being the largest inventory drop in your 10 years in the business. I can definitely believe that. However, you should note that it immediately followed a time period that had the largest percentage increase in inventory on record.
January 18, 2007 @ 9:44 AM
PoppaKoppa– How about next
PoppaKoppa– How about next time you click on the Advertise on this site links on the left or right hand sides of this page rather than trying to advertise for free in your response.
Your opinion is welcome and so are your ads, just try to keep them separate.
And as FSD pointed out, let’s make sure we comparing the same things.
January 23, 2007 @ 9:21 AM
Is that your
Is that your listing on Timber Branch way? Asking $1,098,000? I’d been wondering what kind of realtor the seller would be able to find to waste his time listing a house for at least $250k more than it’s worth. Now I know. One who’s ideas about the current market are informed by hope and poorly spun data.
Also, there’s something else I’ve been curious about. Lots of times I see some type of view listed that doesn’t exist. For instance, on that Timber Branch property, under view, it says, “Evening Lights, Mountains/Hills, Valley/Canyon.” And yet no such view exists in that house. Can you explain that?
February 12, 2007 @ 4:50 PM
You naively say, “This “INVENTORY REDUCTION” of 30% is the greatest in my 10 years as a Realtor, Loan Officer, Property Manager and Investor. The drop seems beyond Seasonal Adjustment. Where have all the Sellers GONE, and where ARE the Buyers? Vacant listings have dropped fom 32% to 27%. Could we be settling into a “new equilibrium”?
If you are anykind of honest realtor you would say that the REAL reason why inventory has dropped significantly is because a vast majority of the listings have simply either expired and/or the sellers are tired of having open houses. Only a DESPERATE seller leaves their home on the market during the winter. Most of these expired listings will appear back onto the market in the early Spring of ’07 which will create the most massive amount of inventory in the history of real estate……mark my words! Many of these sellers are delusional in thinking that “Spring Fever” will strike the buyers.
January 18, 2007 @ 11:40 PM
How’s that crash coming
How’s that crash coming guys. Oh, median prices still up I see. Just not up as much as before, at least all your stats support the decrease in the amount of the annual increase. But Alas, no price decrease yet. Maybe next year. In the meantime, enjoy writing that rent check, which is about to get a lot larger. Just to clarify, has the easy money dried up. Because I could have sworn a whole bunch of new fools started buying in December. Talk all you want, but there is only one explanation… This thing aint done yet. Too much money out there. Prices cannot drop till the demand stops and the demand aint stopping without a recession. Wake up guys, 4% unemployment. Thats called full employment to the Fed. (they used to call 6% full employment). Here’s my in your face prediction, no correction, no median price decline, nothing… in 07.
I’ll give you commodity price declines, because the speculatiors are scared shitless. Except for Kramer. (Hope he gets burned too.)
Happy new year.
January 18, 2007 @ 11:50 PM
Oh, median prices still up I
Oh, median prices still up I see.
Except that they aren’t. They’ve been declining for more than a year now.
Pull your head out and get some facts before posting your smug crap.
January 19, 2007 @ 8:07 AM
Oh, median prices still up I
Oh, median prices still up I see.
Yes they are for one simple reason.
This year’s $690K home is last years $750K house.
This year’s $500K ok home is last years $600K ok home.
Last years $400K starter condo conversion is … not selling.
January 19, 2007 @ 8:13 AM
Very astute observations … if they all were true.
Median price is not up : The median price is down 6.4% from Dec 2005 to December 2006, not up.
Rents may be weakening: Recent data show a marked decrease in occupancy level which portend rental price weakening.
Yes, employment is strong, which helps demand. At least you have that part correct.
Have a wonderful day.
You may want to check the dates on your newspapers. I think you are getting last years news.
January 19, 2007 @ 9:42 AM
you read like a forum
you read like a forum flamer but here goes nothing….
i rent under a long term lease so my rent isn’t going anywhere. i currently pay 1700 to rent my 3bd/2ba condo 0.5 mile from the beach. my monthly “rent” check if i were to buy this place would be around $2800 after taxes. gee…i better hurry and buy this place before i miss out…again.
the 20% down i would use to buy the place i currently rent i can put into a 6 month or 1 yr CD and get a return of 5+%. guaranteed. of the condos that sold in my development in 2006 (about 6) all sold below list price after many price reductions.
you clearly haven’t been reading what the professor has been saying about the economy and unemployment. if you had, you would understand how dependent the job market/economy is on real estate.
“End of line.”
January 19, 2007 @ 2:56 PM
You have to live in a cocoon
You have to live in a cocoon to not see there are price adjustments happening in San Diego. Are they dropping as fast as some of us would like? No.. Has adequate time passed to see how the market will react? No..
I rent for 1600/mo. for a house and I’m “grandfathered” in. Same payment would be over 3k right now to own, if not more because I’m in PB blocks from the beach. Give me a break.
February 12, 2007 @ 5:08 PM
You tell him! We’ve
You tell him! We’ve got to keep these liars straight!
What cracks me up is most of the posts by people that are positive on real estate are the realtors themselves!
Asking a realtor to talk down their own market and tell people that it’s not a good time to buy is just not going to happen. It’s the old fox minding the hen house.
January 19, 2007 @ 10:20 PM
Hey fellas stop the hate. To
Hey fellas stop the hate. To quote Chili palmer, “I’m just the one tellin ya how it is.” Actually, Im just the one givin ya something to talk about. I forgot you guys live in the isolated world of San Diego. Go one county north, no decrease. How about orange cty, la cty, riverside, san bernadino, lets see: positive, positive, poistive, positive, or don’t they count. As to Rich’s argument, so ya get more bang for the buck, so what, the price is still the price. As to Speaker with his 3 bd/2bth condo. Let me get this right. $2800 to buy 1/2 mile from the beach. That would be what, carrying a $400,000 loan, plus $20% down or approx: $500,000.(or did ya use a teaser loan in your estimate, LOL). Sir or madam, DREAM ON! You have forced me to call you out, your either being dishonest or are on Crack. As to $1700/mth, well thats $20,000/yr down the drain. Here’s some simple math for ya, the last 5 years just cost you 100K. And while your waiting for the crash, the next 5 will cost you another 100K. And who is the guy “grandfathered” in. What the hell is that. Give Me a break. What, do your parents own the house. Face it, you missed out, your priced out, and your never going to own. And if your reply is so what, renting is better, then why are you bothering to post here. These posts are for the true believers. The guys who want to OWN! The 50% correction guys, like Speaker. At that kind of drop, he may have a shot at that $500,000 number. But here is the bitter reality no one wants to face. Do you honestly believe the fed, who ran this up, is going to let trillions of dollars vanish. Do you think the Politicians are going to let millions upon millions of Americans fall into bankruptcy. (Alright, they’ll let the first million go to the slaughter to build politican nerve. Ya got me there.) I know none of you were alive in the 70’s. To be clear, that WAS double digit inflation and this IS the double digit inflation that never WAS. (Note how housing doesn’t count in the inflation index). Would you argue, prices went WAY up in the late 70’s, so there going to come back down. That was the new reality, and this is the new reality. It won’t evaporate, because it can’t. The result would be utter destruction. They’ll let it correct some but thats it. There is no invisible hand, because we do not live in a true free mkt. The’re going to drop those interest rates faster than Darva Conger’s panties. (San Diego reference for ya – FOX’s “who wants to marry a millionaire.) Your only solution is to make more money. Which is exacley what they want. If not, then you have just be feudalized and are now the modern feudal serf. If you want to learn more, you can read additional information at HowtheFedscrewedusall.com. Wish you all big pay raises. Please hold the applause till after the spiteful replies.
Cheers. (give it up, this was quite good)
January 19, 2007 @ 11:39 PM
guy1– More house for less
guy1– More house for less money doesn’t mean anything? Perhaps you could explain that. If I’m getting a 4-bedroom house for what I used to pay for a 3-bedroom house, why would that be a so what?
January 20, 2007 @ 12:43 PM
yep….you are delusional.
“As to $1700/mth, well thats $20,000/yr down the drain. Here’s some simple math for ya, the last 5 years just cost you 100K.”
what on earth are you talking about? i never said anything about renting for 1700/mo for the past five years. stop making things up to sound smart; you only sound like an idiot. and as for throwing 20K down the drain…i do need to live somewhere, right? your calculations are about right as to what it would theoretically cost me to buy this place. but here is some more simple math that you clearly missed from my post. if my payment per month is 2800 after i buy but to rent the same place is 1700 then that is a difference of 1100 per month. the gov’t can print more money but i can’t. i can’t afford an extra 1100/mo. but then that isn’t the question. the question is why would i want to spend the extra 1100$/month to live in exactly the same place? and as for the deposit i would put down? what’s wrong with putting 80K to 100K in 5.2% for the next 6 months to a year? that doesn’t sound like a dumb thing to me.
“50% correction guys, like Speaker. At that kind of drop, he may have a shot at that $500,000 number.”
again, what the hell are you talking about!? i never said anything about waiting for a 50% drop before i buy. stop making things up.
“I know none of you were alive in the 70’s. To be clear, that WAS double digit inflation and this IS the double digit inflation that never WAS……The’re going to drop those interest rates faster than Darva Conger’s panties. ”
so from these statements we might be able to deduce that you are in the 45 – 55 age bracket yet the darva conger comment demonstrates that you are both crass and uninformed.
“If you want to learn more, you can read additional information at HowtheFedscrewedusall.com.”
and there is the real truth. i thought you were just another flamer but really you are just a troll. there is a better more polite way to plug your cheap website than to come in here and just start spouting a bunch of nonsense.
“End of line.”
January 19, 2007 @ 10:22 PM
sorry double post
sorry double post