Let me just be the first to admit that these monthly reports on the local economy have been less than thrilling. For better or worse, my intent with this website is to give an accurate assessment of what’s going on, and if what’s going on is “nothing” then there’s little I can do.
What’s going on hasn’t been precisely “nothing,” but it’s close enough… it’s really a continuation of what we’ve seen for several months. Which is to say, as measured by mortgage defaults, homeowner balance sheets have not begun to deteriorate:
…and that real estate industry employment shot up again as non-real estate employment stayed as flat as a pancake:
In other words, more of the same.
This situation is, of course, entirely unsustainable. San Diego cannot become a city populated entirely by real estate agents, and the amount of adjustable-rate debt that’s been taken on effectively guarantees future financial troubles for homeowners. For now, though, the San Diego economy remains in its housing-dependent holding pattern. I can’t say when it will end; only that it will end—and that when it does, things will get a lot more interesting.