January Resale Data Rodeo

The new year began with another step down in the size-adjusted median for both property types:

The decline was mild by recent standards, down 1.7% for single family homes, .9% for condos, and 1.6% in aggregate.

The "vanilla" median was flat for condos but down 4.6% for single family homes:

And here is the Case-Shiller HPI with the orange bits estimated based on the size-adjusted median price. This approach has tended to overstate the decline lately as people have moved down the quality ladder to favor cheaper properties. For instance, changes to the size-adjusted median predicted a 3.7% decline in November vs. an actual decline of 2.3%.

That said, here it is for what it’s worth, predicting a 3.8% decline in December and a 3.5% decline in January (which probably means that the monthly declines will be closer to the 2.3% actual drop that we saw in November):

Sales volume was pretty good, slightly edging out the 2007 figure. As often discussed, the sales have been concentrated among lower end properties. (Although single family home sales have bounced back a lot more than condo sales — single family sales were up 64% yoy vs. just 37% for condos).

Inventory dropped again:

Resulting in a months-of-inventory figure that is slightly lower than what we saw in 2007 and about half of what it was in January of 2008:

So, the volume pickup continues to be a bright spot (even if it is concentrated on cheaper properties that have declined the most in price). But prices themselves continue to drop in a fairly steady manner.