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underdose
ParticipantYour guess is as good as mine. I personally expect severe inflation despite the immediately deflationary effects of this market crash. I suspect Bernanke will way overprint. Of course the wildcard is, how much can he print in 3 months, and (assuming Bush actually steps down peacefully) will the next president retain him? How soon will this inflation become apparant and push gold and commodities back up? Jeez, I would have expected it a lot sooner, but I also expected the housing crash to happen sooner. I’m no good at timing things, and gold and commodities got hammered on Friday as badly as the stock market, so maybe I’m way early on that bet. So maybe dollar costing will work for you. If prices still drop from here, you can buy more “on sale”. But in a 3 – 5 year time horizon, I’m in full agreement with you. Likely good returns eventually. Maybe you want other commodities besides just oil, particularly agriculture. People will cut down on oil use. All they gotta do is trade the Escalade for a Prius. But people will always eat, no matter how bad the economy. But that’s just me…
ParticipantYour guess is as good as mine. I personally expect severe inflation despite the immediately deflationary effects of this market crash. I suspect Bernanke will way overprint. Of course the wildcard is, how much can he print in 3 months, and (assuming Bush actually steps down peacefully) will the next president retain him? How soon will this inflation become apparant and push gold and commodities back up? Jeez, I would have expected it a lot sooner, but I also expected the housing crash to happen sooner. I’m no good at timing things, and gold and commodities got hammered on Friday as badly as the stock market, so maybe I’m way early on that bet. So maybe dollar costing will work for you. If prices still drop from here, you can buy more “on sale”. But in a 3 – 5 year time horizon, I’m in full agreement with you. Likely good returns eventually. Maybe you want other commodities besides just oil, particularly agriculture. People will cut down on oil use. All they gotta do is trade the Escalade for a Prius. But people will always eat, no matter how bad the economy. But that’s just me…
ParticipantYour guess is as good as mine. I personally expect severe inflation despite the immediately deflationary effects of this market crash. I suspect Bernanke will way overprint. Of course the wildcard is, how much can he print in 3 months, and (assuming Bush actually steps down peacefully) will the next president retain him? How soon will this inflation become apparant and push gold and commodities back up? Jeez, I would have expected it a lot sooner, but I also expected the housing crash to happen sooner. I’m no good at timing things, and gold and commodities got hammered on Friday as badly as the stock market, so maybe I’m way early on that bet. So maybe dollar costing will work for you. If prices still drop from here, you can buy more “on sale”. But in a 3 – 5 year time horizon, I’m in full agreement with you. Likely good returns eventually. Maybe you want other commodities besides just oil, particularly agriculture. People will cut down on oil use. All they gotta do is trade the Escalade for a Prius. But people will always eat, no matter how bad the economy. But that’s just me…
ParticipantYour guess is as good as mine. I personally expect severe inflation despite the immediately deflationary effects of this market crash. I suspect Bernanke will way overprint. Of course the wildcard is, how much can he print in 3 months, and (assuming Bush actually steps down peacefully) will the next president retain him? How soon will this inflation become apparant and push gold and commodities back up? Jeez, I would have expected it a lot sooner, but I also expected the housing crash to happen sooner. I’m no good at timing things, and gold and commodities got hammered on Friday as badly as the stock market, so maybe I’m way early on that bet. So maybe dollar costing will work for you. If prices still drop from here, you can buy more “on sale”. But in a 3 – 5 year time horizon, I’m in full agreement with you. Likely good returns eventually. Maybe you want other commodities besides just oil, particularly agriculture. People will cut down on oil use. All they gotta do is trade the Escalade for a Prius. But people will always eat, no matter how bad the economy. But that’s just me…
Participant[quote=stansd]The only thing you are missing is the naivete of the investing public, the false assumption that the American empire can’t go under, and possibly the blind faith that the foreigners who supply our credit won’t pull our line in the face of their own economic insecurity and our profligacy.
[/quote]As I said, misplaced confidence. I’m glad to hear I’m not the only one that thinks this. So you chalk it up to naivete. Can anyone refute, or are we in 100% agreement that bonds have to tank sooner or later? The only gotcha I can think of is Bernanke’s 2002 speech in which he said the Fed could print new money and buy treasuries with it in order to try to manipulate long term interest rates. But again, even if he manages to keep the yields low and prices don’t tank nominally, the dollar would be completely worthless before 10 years are up.
Participant[quote=stansd]The only thing you are missing is the naivete of the investing public, the false assumption that the American empire can’t go under, and possibly the blind faith that the foreigners who supply our credit won’t pull our line in the face of their own economic insecurity and our profligacy.
[/quote]As I said, misplaced confidence. I’m glad to hear I’m not the only one that thinks this. So you chalk it up to naivete. Can anyone refute, or are we in 100% agreement that bonds have to tank sooner or later? The only gotcha I can think of is Bernanke’s 2002 speech in which he said the Fed could print new money and buy treasuries with it in order to try to manipulate long term interest rates. But again, even if he manages to keep the yields low and prices don’t tank nominally, the dollar would be completely worthless before 10 years are up.
Participant[quote=stansd]The only thing you are missing is the naivete of the investing public, the false assumption that the American empire can’t go under, and possibly the blind faith that the foreigners who supply our credit won’t pull our line in the face of their own economic insecurity and our profligacy.
[/quote]As I said, misplaced confidence. I’m glad to hear I’m not the only one that thinks this. So you chalk it up to naivete. Can anyone refute, or are we in 100% agreement that bonds have to tank sooner or later? The only gotcha I can think of is Bernanke’s 2002 speech in which he said the Fed could print new money and buy treasuries with it in order to try to manipulate long term interest rates. But again, even if he manages to keep the yields low and prices don’t tank nominally, the dollar would be completely worthless before 10 years are up.
Participant[quote=stansd]The only thing you are missing is the naivete of the investing public, the false assumption that the American empire can’t go under, and possibly the blind faith that the foreigners who supply our credit won’t pull our line in the face of their own economic insecurity and our profligacy.
[/quote]As I said, misplaced confidence. I’m glad to hear I’m not the only one that thinks this. So you chalk it up to naivete. Can anyone refute, or are we in 100% agreement that bonds have to tank sooner or later? The only gotcha I can think of is Bernanke’s 2002 speech in which he said the Fed could print new money and buy treasuries with it in order to try to manipulate long term interest rates. But again, even if he manages to keep the yields low and prices don’t tank nominally, the dollar would be completely worthless before 10 years are up.
Participant[quote=stansd]The only thing you are missing is the naivete of the investing public, the false assumption that the American empire can’t go under, and possibly the blind faith that the foreigners who supply our credit won’t pull our line in the face of their own economic insecurity and our profligacy.
[/quote]As I said, misplaced confidence. I’m glad to hear I’m not the only one that thinks this. So you chalk it up to naivete. Can anyone refute, or are we in 100% agreement that bonds have to tank sooner or later? The only gotcha I can think of is Bernanke’s 2002 speech in which he said the Fed could print new money and buy treasuries with it in order to try to manipulate long term interest rates. But again, even if he manages to keep the yields low and prices don’t tank nominally, the dollar would be completely worthless before 10 years are up.
Participant[quote]”The relentless slide in home prices …[/quote]
I love how the news keeps talking about the housing downturn. How often do you hear them characterize it correctly as the popping of the bubble? Almost never. But it isn’t a downturn. It isn’t a relentless slide. Those terms imply this came from outer space with no prior cause. It is a correction. The bad thing was the run up. Why doesn’t the WSJ say “The aftermath of the relentless run up in home prices…”?
Participant[quote]”The relentless slide in home prices …[/quote]
I love how the news keeps talking about the housing downturn. How often do you hear them characterize it correctly as the popping of the bubble? Almost never. But it isn’t a downturn. It isn’t a relentless slide. Those terms imply this came from outer space with no prior cause. It is a correction. The bad thing was the run up. Why doesn’t the WSJ say “The aftermath of the relentless run up in home prices…”?
Participant[quote]”The relentless slide in home prices …[/quote]
I love how the news keeps talking about the housing downturn. How often do you hear them characterize it correctly as the popping of the bubble? Almost never. But it isn’t a downturn. It isn’t a relentless slide. Those terms imply this came from outer space with no prior cause. It is a correction. The bad thing was the run up. Why doesn’t the WSJ say “The aftermath of the relentless run up in home prices…”?
Participant[quote]”The relentless slide in home prices …[/quote]
I love how the news keeps talking about the housing downturn. How often do you hear them characterize it correctly as the popping of the bubble? Almost never. But it isn’t a downturn. It isn’t a relentless slide. Those terms imply this came from outer space with no prior cause. It is a correction. The bad thing was the run up. Why doesn’t the WSJ say “The aftermath of the relentless run up in home prices…”?
Participant[quote]”The relentless slide in home prices …[/quote]
I love how the news keeps talking about the housing downturn. How often do you hear them characterize it correctly as the popping of the bubble? Almost never. But it isn’t a downturn. It isn’t a relentless slide. Those terms imply this came from outer space with no prior cause. It is a correction. The bad thing was the run up. Why doesn’t the WSJ say “The aftermath of the relentless run up in home prices…”?
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